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<title><![CDATA[杭州先锋翻译公司]]> </title>
<description>
<![CDATA[杭州先锋翻译公司, 集合华东、华南独具优势的翻译人才, 提供科技、财经类的专业中英翻译。我们旗下的译员不乏在海归人士和精通科技、财经、英语方面的优秀人才，翻译准确到位，交件及时。是您翻译需求的首选！]]>
</description>
<link>http://duxiaoy123.blog.bokee.net/</link>
<language>zh-cn</language>
<creator>duxiaoy123</creator>
<pubDate>Tue, 13 Nov 2007 21:16:49 CST </pubDate>
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<item>
<title>诚聘兼职翻译人员(英语、德语、日语、法语、西班牙语）</title>
<link>http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1882643.html</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[本公司和世界500强保持良好的合作关系，现有大量翻译任务需要招聘兼职翻译人员(英语、德语、日语、法语、西班牙语），有意者将包含您擅长的语种和领域，以及翻译经验等简历发至本公司人事部。请务必留下联系方式，以便我们和您联系。]]>
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<subject></subject>
<author>duxiaoy123</author>
<category></category>
<pubDate>Mon, 09 Jun 2008 22:17:49 CST </pubDate>
</item>

<item>
<title>我们已完成的项目</title>
<link>http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1639597.html</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[<p>本公司成立10余年来， 已经和世界500强的多家跨国公司达成了精诚合作， 并成功地完成了如下项目：</p>
<p>1.&nbsp;&nbsp; 某东南亚大型地产公司开发沿海项目的项目工程报告、预决算报告；</p>
<p>2.&nbsp; 杭州黄龙商圈某知名国企开发当地标志性建筑的项目报告;</p>
<p>3. 某知名通信企业的移动通信工程建设的招投标文件、合同；</p>
<p>4. 某知名电子半导体元器件的产品说明书(产品设计成千种);</p>
<p>5. 某知名外资银行信用卡中心工作流程;</p>
<p>6. 某知名外资银行年度报告.....</p>
<p>等等。 </p>
<p>因产品涉及核心机密， 恕不能详尽列出合作企业名称。本公司遵循为客户严格保密的原则，恕不接受对合作客户产品信息的详细咨询。</p>
<p>欢迎来电或向我们的客户服务人员咨询进一步合作的翻译文稿事宜。</p>]]>
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<subject>客户须知</subject>
<author>duxiaoy123</author>
<category>客户须知</category>
<pubDate>Mon, 07 Apr 2008 13:41:47 CST </pubDate>
</item>

<item>
<title>杭州先锋翻译公司翻译质量体系</title>
<link>http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1581430.html</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[<p>
<table style="LINE-HEIGHT: 22px; LETTER-SPACING: 1px" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="0" width="100%" border="0">
    <tbody>
        <tr>
            <td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccc 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #ccc 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid; COLOR: #10609b; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccc 1px solid" bgcolor="#eeeeee" height="22">强大的数据库：</td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td height="5">&nbsp;</td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccc 1px solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 6px; BORDER-TOP: #ccc 1px solid; PADDING-LEFT: 6px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccc 1px solid">&nbsp;&nbsp;自建并拥有各个领域的术语库、参考资料以及各式文档的格式模板，确保译文的准确性，术语和风格的连贯一致，并就译文的排版和应用向客户提供专业的建议。</td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td height="5">&nbsp;</td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccc 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #ccc 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid; COLOR: #10609b; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccc 1px solid" bgcolor="#eeeeee" height="22">&nbsp;&nbsp;<img height="10" src="http://www.ata.com.cn/page/images/bullet.gif" width="10" alt="" /> 资深译员组成的团队：</td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td height="5">&nbsp;</td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccc 1px solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 6px; BORDER-TOP: #ccc 1px solid; PADDING-LEFT: 6px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccc 1px solid">&nbsp;&nbsp;只有具备丰富翻译经验并且拥有某一专业背景的资深译员，经过严格考核，才可以进入志远翻译社的翻译团队。目前，除在中国大陆的数百名优秀译员外，杭州先锋翻译公司还拥有全球范围内的数十名外籍译员，为您提供外译外翻译服务，或为中译外稿件提供校审和润色。</td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td height="5">&nbsp;</td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccc 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #ccc 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid; COLOR: #10609b; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccc 1px solid" bgcolor="#eeeeee" height="22">&nbsp;&nbsp;<img height="10" src="http://www.ata.com.cn/page/images/bullet.gif" width="10" alt="" /> 完善的项目管理：</td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td height="5">&nbsp;</td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccc 1px solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 6px; BORDER-TOP: #ccc 1px solid; PADDING-LEFT: 6px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccc 1px solid">&nbsp;&nbsp;TMS&trade;和Trados的结合，充分实现了翻译流程的可控制。在志远翻译社，由专人实施的项目管理，通过流程的设计和改进，完全确保了翻译的进度、质量和成本。</td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td height="5">&nbsp;</td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccc 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #ccc 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid; COLOR: #10609b; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccc 1px solid" bgcolor="#eeeeee" height="22">&nbsp;&nbsp;<img height="10" src="http://www.ata.com.cn/page/images/bullet.gif" width="10" alt="" /> ISO9001：</td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td height="5">&nbsp;</td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ccc 1px solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 6px; BORDER-TOP: #ccc 1px solid; PADDING-LEFT: 6px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccc 1px solid">&nbsp;&nbsp;志远翻译社即将把这一国际通行的质量管理体系应用到翻译行业当中。通过ISO9001，可将翻译的各个流程规范化和标准化，降低错误率和缺陷率，确保翻译产品和服务的质量并进行持续改进。</td>
        </tr>
    </tbody>
</table>
</p>]]>
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<subject>客户须知</subject>
<author>duxiaoy123</author>
<category>客户须知</category>
<pubDate>Mon, 24 Mar 2008 18:16:38 CST </pubDate>
</item>

<item>
<title>杭州先锋翻译公司客户须知</title>
<link>http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1581393.html</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[1． 我们严格执行中华人民共和国国家标准GB/T 19363.1-2003《翻译服务规范第一部分：笔译》和中华人民共和国国家标准GB/T 19682-2005《翻译服务译文质量要求》。<br />&nbsp;&nbsp; 2． 为确保我们按时保质完成翻译任务，做好翻译进度汇报、质量跟踪和客户满意度调查工作，请务必提供详细准确的联络方式。<br />&nbsp;&nbsp; 3． 请尽量提供电子版稿件。我们恕不接受手写、模糊、晦涩的原文，也不承接非本公司译稿的校对和编辑。<br />&nbsp;&nbsp; 4． 专业性较强的稿件，请尽可能提供必要的参考资料（如专业文献、专业术语、难词释义和缩略词汇表、背景资料等），以便我们为您定制专业词库，进行术语管理，保持术语一致性，最大限度地提高翻译质量。<br />&nbsp;&nbsp; 5． 客户应保证原稿的合法性，明确译稿的用途。我们只对译稿的准确性和完整性负责，对译稿的使用所造成的直接和/或间接后果不承担责任。<br />&nbsp;&nbsp; 6． 不同的译文质量等级，翻译流程和翻译费用均有所不同。为此，我们会根据您的实际翻译需求，为您量身定制不同的译文质量等级，使您的成本效益最大化。<br />&nbsp;&nbsp; 7． 翻译质量与投入的时间成正比。如非特急稿件，请尽量给予我们充足的翻译时间。因配合客户加急翻译的稿件，客户应同意不因品质未臻完善而要求扣款或拒付款项。<br />&nbsp;&nbsp; 8． 翻译是一项艰苦复杂的脑力劳动，百密难免一疏。客户如对我们的译稿有异议，请在收到译稿后七日内以书面形式告知我们，逾期将视为自动放弃。<br />&nbsp;&nbsp; 9． 我们仅在客户支付的翻译费用的数额内对客户承担翻译责任。我们不承担客户任何间接的损失。<br />&nbsp;&nbsp; 10． 保密是我们的天职。客户委托的所有稿件，无论是否机密资料，我们均按制度予以保密。必要时，可与客户签订《保密协议》。<br /><strong>译文质量等级：</strong><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>1类</strong> - 作为正式文件、法律文书或出版文稿使用<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>2类</strong> - 作为一般文件和材料使用<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>3类</strong> - 作为参考资料使用<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>4类</strong> - 作为内容概要或摘译使用]]>
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<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1581393.html</guid>
<subject>客户须知</subject>
<author>duxiaoy123</author>
<category>客户须知</category>
<pubDate>Mon, 24 Mar 2008 18:00:42 CST </pubDate>
</item>

<item>
<title>英语笑话 </title>
<link>http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1175344.html</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[<font color="#ff0000">I'm the boss<br /><br /></font>The boss was complaining in our staff meeting the other day that he wasn't getting any respect.
<p>Later that morning he went to a local card and novelty shop and bought a small sign that read, &quot;I'm the Boss&quot;. He then taped it to his office door.</p>
<p align="left">Later that day when he returned from lunch, he found that someone had taped a note to the sign that said. &quot;Your wife called, she wants her sign back!&quot; </p>
<p align="left">&nbsp;</p>
<p align="left"><font color="#ff0000">Circle Of Life<br /></font></p>
<p>At age 4, success is not peeing your pants.</p>
<p>At age 12, success is having friends.</p>
<p>At age 20, success is having sex.</p>
<p>At age 35, success is making money.</p>
<p>At age 60, success is having sex.</p>
<p>At age 70, success is having friends.</p>
<p>At age 80, success is not peeing your pants</p>
<p><font color="#ff0000">My Wife Is Pregnant</font><br /><br />A man spoke frantically (疯狂地）into the phone, &quot;My wife is pregnant and her contractions are only two minutes apart!&quot; </p>
<p>&quot;Is this her first child?&quot; the doctor asked. </p>
<p>&quot;No!&quot; the man shouted, &quot;This is her husband!&quot;</p>
<p><font color="#ff0000">Let me in<br /><br /></font>Little Suzie was in her bedroom when her younger brother knocked on the door. </p>
<p>&quot;Hey! Let me in,&quot; he shouted.</p>
<p>&quot;I can't let you in because I'm in my nightgown(女睡衣） and mama says it isn't right for little boys to see little girls in their nightgowns!&quot;</p>
<p>Her little brother thought about this for a moment, then turned to walk away, when Suzie called out from her room. &quot;You can come in now! I took it off!&quot;<br /><br /><font color="#ff0000">Chicken Breast <br /><br /></font>Our supermarket had a sale on boneless chicken breasts, and a woman I know intended to stock up(备货，囤积）. At the store, however, she was disappointed to find only a few skimpy （不足的, 吝啬的）prepackaged portions of the poultry, so she complained to the butcher. </p>
<p>&quot;Don't worry, lady,&quot; he said. &quot;I'll pack some more trays and have them ready for you by the time you finish shopping.&quot;</p>
<p>Several aisles later, my friend heard the butcher's voice boom over the public-address system: &quot;Will the lady who wanted bigger breasts please meet me at the back of the store.&quot;<br /></p>
<p><font color="#ff0000">What size? <br /><br /></font>A man walked into a dress shop and told the clerk he wanted to buy a surprise formal evening gown (礼服, 睡袍)for his wife. <br /><br />&quot;What size?&quot; asked the clerk. </p>
<p>The man shrugged blankly.</p>
<p>Trying to help, the clerk inquired, &quot;Well then, what are your wife's measurements?&quot;</p>
<p>The man thought for a moment. &quot;Small, medium, and large and in that order.&quot;</p>
<p><br />A few days later the parish received word that the bishop would be coming for a visit. The entire parish was busy readying the church for the visit.</p>
<p>On the day the bishop arrived, the same nun came down the front stairs yelling, &quot;Father! Father! I found your watch!&quot;</p>
<p>The bishop said, &quot;How wonderful my child. Where did you find it?&quot;</p>
<p>After saying hello to the bishop, the nun turned to the priest and said, &quot;I found it under OUR bed.&quot;</p>]]>
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<subject></subject>
<author>duxiaoy123</author>
<category></category>
<pubDate>Tue, 13 Nov 2007 23:01:36 CST </pubDate>
</item>

<item>
<title>The Creation of the World     开天辟地</title>
<link>http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1175336.html</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[<p>Genesis</p>
<p>In the beginning of creation, when God made heaven and earth, the earth was without form and void, with darkness over the face of the abyss, and a mighty wind that swept over the surface of the waters. God said, &lsquo;Let there be light&rsquo;, and there was light; and God saw that the light was good, and he separated light from darkness. He called the light day, and the darkness night. So evening came, and morning came, the first day. </p>
<p>God said, &lsquo;Let there be a vault between the waters, to separate water from water. &rsquo;So God made the vault, and separated the water under the vault from the water above it, and so it was; and God called the vault heaven. Evening came, and morning came, a second day. </p>
<p>God said, &lsquo;Let the waters under heaven be gathered into one place, so that dry land may appear&rsquo;; and so it was. God called the dry land earth, and the gathering of the waters he called seas; and God saw that it was good. Then God said, &lsquo;Let the earth produce fresh growth, let there be on the earth plants bearing seed, fruit-trees bearing fruit each with seed according to its kind. &rsquo;So it was; the earth yielded fresh growth, plants bearing seed according to their kind and trees bearing fruit each with seed according to its king; and God saw that it was good. Evening came, and morning came, a third day. </p>
<p>God said, &lsquo;Let there be lights in the vault of heaven to separate day from night, and let them serve as signs both for festivals and for seasons and years. Let them also shine in the vault of heaven to give light on earth. &rsquo;So it was ; God made the two great lights, the greater to govern the day and the lesser to govern the night; and with them he made the stars. God put these lights in the vault of heaven to give light on earth, to govern day and night, and to separate light from darkness; and God saw that it was good. Evening came, and morning came, a fourth day. </p>
<p>God, said, &lsquo;Let the waters teem with countless living creatures, and let birds fly above the earth across the vault of heaven. &rsquo;god then created the great sea-monsters and all living creatures that move and sw</p>
<p>创世记</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>　　太初，上帝始创天地时，大地混沌一片，是个无边无际的黑暗深渊，强风于水面刮掠。上帝说：&ldquo;要有光！&rdquo;立刻就有光。上帝见有光很好，就把光明与黑暗分开，称光明为昼，黑暗为夜。于是黑夜临，晨光现，是为第一天。</p>
<p>　　上帝说：&ldquo;要有一穹窿将水上下分隔！&rdquo;于是他就造穹窿，将水分开，有水于穹窿之上，亦有水于穹窿之下。上帝称穹窿为天空。黑夜再临，晨光再现，是为第二天。</p>
<p>　　上帝说：&ldquo;天下之水要汇于一处，使干涸土地显露！&rdquo;于是就出现土地。上帝称土地为陆，称汇集之水为海。上帝见如此很好。又说：&ldquo;要大地生机蓬勃，地上要有能结实之树木，果子要各有其籽实！&rdquo;于是大地生机蓬勃，出现无数瓜果树木，籽实累累。上帝见如此很好。黑夜又临，晨光再现，是为第三天。</p>
<p>　　上帝说：&ldquo;天穹中要有光体以区分昼夜，要使光体为节令与年月季候之标志，并使于天穹中发出光辉，照亮大地！&rdquo;于是，上帝造两个巨大光体，较大之日司昼，较小之月掌夜，并造了星辰。上帝把日月星辰置于天穹之中以照亮大地，司昼夜、分明暗。上帝见如此很好。黑夜临，晨光现，是为第四天。</p>
<p>　　上帝说：&ldquo;水中要有万种游鱼，地上要有无数飞鸟&rdquo;于是上帝创造出种类繁多的大小鱼类及飞鸟。上帝见如此很好。于是赐福与他们，说：&ldquo;让海中游鱼，天上飞鸟滋生繁衍！&rdquo;黑夜临 ，晨光现，是为第五天。</p>
<p>　　上帝说：&ldquo;地上要有爬虫走兽，大小牲畜，各从其类！&rdquo;上帝就创造走兽，牲畜和爬行动物，各从其类。上帝见如此很。他说：&ldquo;要按我形象造人以治理海中游鱼、空中飞鸟以及地上各种爬虫走兽。&rdquo;于是，上帝按自己形象造出人类，造出男与女。上帝祝福他们说：&ldquo;你们要生育繁衍，散布及开拓全世界，要做海中鱼、空中鸟与地上爬虫走兽之主宰！&rdquo;上帝还说：&ldquo;我要使地上到处生长瓜果，结满籽实，赐与你们为食。我要把青草绿树全赐飞禽走兽、游鱼爬虫、以及一切生物为食。&rdquo;话语间一切均成现实。上帝见到所造之一切，他十分满意。黑夜临，晨光现，是为第六日。</p>
<p>　　天地万物已造齐。到第六日，上帝造物工作全部完毕。第七天，他停止工作。上帝赐福于第七天，称之为圣日，因那天他要做的一切都已完成，无须工作了。</p>
<p>　　这就是上帝开天辟地的故事。</p>]]>
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<subject></subject>
<author>duxiaoy123</author>
<category></category>
<pubDate>Tue, 13 Nov 2007 22:56:31 CST </pubDate>
</item>

<item>
<title>巴菲特1987年写给股东的信(一)</title>
<link>http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1175329.html</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. <br /><br />波克夏海瑟崴股份有限公司
<p class="song12b">&nbsp;</p>
<p class="song12b"><br />To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:<br /><br />致所有股东:</p>
<p class="song12b">&nbsp;</p>
<p class="song12b"><br />Our gain in net worth during 1987 was $464 million, or 19.5%. Over the last 23 years (that is, since present management took over), our per-share book value has grown from $19.46 to $2,477.47, or at a rate of 23.1% compounded annually. <br /><br />本公司在1978年的净值增加了四亿六千四百万，较去年增加了19.5%，而过去23年以来(自从现有经营阶层接手后)，每股净值从19元成长到现在的2,477美元，年复合成长率约23.1%。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">What counts, of course, is the rate of gain in per-share business value, not book value. In many cases, a corporation's book value and business value are almost totally unrelated. For example, just before they went bankrupt, LTV and Baldwin-United published yearend audits showing their book values to be 652 million and $397 million, respectively. Conversely, Belridge Oil was sold to Shell in 1979 for $3.6 billion although its book value was only $177 million. <br /><br />真正重要的当然是企业每股实际价值，而非帐面价值的增加，在许多情况下一家公司的帐面与其实际价值一点关连都没有，举例来说，LTV与鲍德温联合公司就在宣布破产之前的会计师签证的年度报告还显示，帐面各有净值六亿与四亿美金，但是另一个公司Belridge石油在1979年以36亿美元高价卖给壳牌石油之时，帐面净值却不到两亿。</p>
<p class="song12b">&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<blockquote>
<p class="song12b">At Berkshire, however, the two valuations have tracked rather closely, with the growth rate in business value over the last decade moderately outpacing the growth rate in book value. This good news continued in 1987. <br /><br />不过在波克夏两者成长的趋势倒是蛮相近的，过去十年公司的实际价值成长率略高于帐面价值成长率，很高兴这种好现象在今年也能持续维持。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Our premium of business value to book value has widened for two simple reasons: We own some remarkable businesses and they are run by even more remarkable managers. <br /><br />我们企业价值对帐面价值的差距，因为以下二个简单的原因又扩大了一点，一是我们拥有优秀的企业，一是这些企业皆由最优秀的经理人在管理。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">You have a right to question that second assertion. After all, CEOs seldom tell their shareholders that they have assembled a bunch of turkeys to run things. Their reluctance to do so makes for some strange annual reports. Oftentimes, in his shareholders' letter, a CEO will go on for pages detailing corporate performance that is woefully inadequate. He will nonetheless end with a warm paragraph describing his managerial comrades as &quot;our most precious asset.&quot; Such comments sometimes make you wonder what the other assets can possibly be. <br /><br />各位有理由对第二个原因表示意见，因为一家企业的总经理很少会告诉公司股东说，你们所投资的公司是由一群笨蛋组成的经营阶层来管理，而也就是为了要避免露出马脚，所以常常使得一些公司常常会出现相当诡异的财务报表。通常在致股东的报告中，CEO会花一大篇幅详细描述过去企业的表现是如何的不当，最后不可免俗地会以感性的语气来形容其所带领的公司干部实在是公司最珍贵的资产，这种形容有时会让人搞不清楚那其它的资产到底又算是什么?</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">At Berkshire, however, my appraisal of our operating managers is, if anything, understated. To understand why, first take a look at page 7, where we show the earnings (on an historical-cost accounting basis) of our seven largest non-financial units: Buffalo News, Fechheimer, Kirby, Nebraska Furniture Mart, Scott Fetzer Manufacturing Group, See's Candies, and World Book. In 1987, these seven business units had combined operating earnings before interest and taxes of $180 million. <br /><br />不过在波克夏，我个人对于管理干部任何的称赞都是很容易让人理解的，首先请看看第七页，显示本公司七个非金融业的主要企业-水牛城报纸、费区海默西服、寇比吸尘器、内布拉斯加家具、史考特飞兹集团、喜斯糖果与世界百科全书的获利状况(以历史成本会计基础)，1987年这七家公司的年度在扣除利息与所得税前的获利高达一亿八千万美元</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">By itself, this figure says nothing about economic performance. To evaluate that, we must know how much total capital - debt and equity - was needed to produce these earnings. Debt plays an insignificant role at our seven units: Their net interest expense in 1987 was only $2 million. Thus, pre-tax earnings on the equity capital employed by these businesses amounted to $178 million. And this equity - again on a historical-cost basis - was only $175 million. <br /><br />单独这数字本身并不足以说明其特殊性，但若你知道他们利用多少资金就达到这项成果时，你就知道他们是如何地了不起了，事实上这些公司的负债比例都非常的低，去年的利息费用总共加起来也不过只有二百万美元，所以合计税前获利一亿七千八百万，而帐列的历史投资股本竟只有一亿七千五百万！</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">If these seven business units had operated as a single company, their 1987 after-tax earnings would have been approximately $100 million - a return of about 57% on equity capital. You'll seldom see such a percentage anywhere, let alone at large, diversified companies with nominal leverage. Here's a benchmark: In its 1988 Investor's Guide issue, Fortune reported that among the 500 largest industrial companies and 500 largest service companies, only six had averaged a return on equity of over 30% during the previous decade. The best performer among the 1000 was Commerce Clearing House at 40.2%. <br /><br />若把这七家公司视作是单一个体公司，则税后净利约为一亿美元，股东权益投资报酬率更将高达57%，即使财务杠杆再高，你也很难在一般公司看到这种比率，根据财星杂志在1988年出版的投资人手册，在全美五百大制造业与五百大服务业中，只有六家公司过去十年的股东权益报酬率超过30%，最高的一家也不过只有40.2%。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Of course, the returns that Berkshire earns from these seven units are not as high as their underlying returns because, in aggregate, we bought the businesses at a substantial premium to underlying equity capital. Overall, these operations are carried on our books at about $222 million above the historical accounting values of the underlying assets. However, the managers of the units should be judged by the returns they achieve on the underlying assets; what we pay for a business does not affect the mount of capital its manager has to work with. (If, to become a shareholder and part owner of Commerce Clearing House, you pay, say, six times book value, that does not change CCH's return on equity.) <br /><br />当然Berkshire真正从这些公司赚得的报酬并没有那么地高，因为当初买下这些公司时，支付了相当的溢价才取得这些股份，经过统计我们在这些公司原始投资超过其帐列的股权净值的溢价金额约为二亿二千二百万美元，当然要判断这些公司经理人的绩效应该是要看他们创造的盈余是靠多少资产所产生的，至于我们用多少钱买下这些公司与经理人的绩效并无关联，就算你用高于净值六倍的价钱买下一家公司，同样也不会影响该公司的股东权益报酬率。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Three important inferences can be drawn from the figures I have cited. First, the current business value of these seven units is far above their historical book value and also far above the value at which they are carried on Berkshire's balance sheet. Second, because so little capital is required to run these businesses, they can grow while concurrently making almost all of their earnings available for deployment in new opportunities. Third, these businesses are run by truly extraordinary managers. The Blumkins, the Heldmans, Chuck Huggins, Stan Lipsey, and Ralph Schey all held unusual talent, energy and character to achieve exceptional financial results.<br /><br />以上所提数字代表着三项重要的指针，首先现在这七家企业的真正价值远高于其帐面净值，同样也远高于Berkshire帐列的投资成本，第二因为经营这些事业并不需要太多的资金，所以这些公司利用所赚取的盈余便足以支应本身业务的发展，第三这些事业都由非常能干的经理人在经营，像是Blumkins家族、Heldmans、Chuck Huggins、Stan Lipsey与Ralph Schey皆兼具才干、精力与品格，将旗下事业经营的有声有色。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">For good reasons, we had very high expectations when we joined with these managers. In every case, however, our experience has greatly exceeded those expectations. We have received far more than we deserve, but we are willing to accept such inequities. (We subscribe to the view Jack Benny expressed upon receiving an acting award: &quot;I don't deserve this, but then, I have arthritis and I don't deserve that either.&quot;) <br /><br />也因此当初这些明星经理人加入时，我们并抱持着极高的期待，事后证明得到的结果远高于预期，我们获得远高于我们所应得的，当然我们很乐意接受这样不公平的对待，我们借用杰克班尼在获得最佳男主角时的感言：「我不应该得到这个奖项，但同样地我也不应该得到关节炎。」</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Beyond the Sainted Seven, we have our other major unit, insurance, which I believe also has a usiness value well above the net assets employed in it. However, appraising the business value of a property-casualty insurance company is a decidedly imprecise process. The industry is volatile, reported earnings oftentimes are seriously inaccurate, and recent changes in the Tax Code will severely hurt future profitability. Despite these problems, we like the business and it will almost certainly remain our largest operation. Under Mike Goldberg's management, the insurance business should treat us well over time. <br /><br />除了这七个圣徒之外，我们还有一项主要的事业-保险，同样地我也认为它的价值远高于其帐列的资产，只是要评估一家产物意外险公司的价值就没有办法那么明确了，这个产业变动很大，报表所列的获利数字有时会有很大的偏差，而且最近税法修正对我们未来年度的获利有很大的影响，尽管如此保险事业仍会是我们经营事业的最大重心，在Mike Goldberg的管理之下，保险事业的报酬仍可期待。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">With managers like ours, my partner, Charlie Munger, and I have little to do with operations. in fact, it is probably fair to say that if we did more, less would be accomplished. We have no corporate meetings, no corporate budgets, and no performance reviews (though our managers, of course, oftentimes find such procedures useful at their operating units). After all, what can we tell the Blumkins about home furnishings, or the Heldmans about uniforms? <br /><br />有这些优秀的专业经理人，在事业的日常营运上，查理孟格跟我实在是没有什么好费心思的地方，事实上，平心而论我们管的越多，可能只会把事情搞砸，在Berkshire我们没有企业会议，也没有年度预算，更没有绩效考核(当然各个企业单位因应自身所需，有自己的一套管理办法) ，但总的来说，我们实在没有什么可以告诉指导Blumkin如何去卖家具事业或是指导Heldman家族如何经营制服事业。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Our major contribution to the operations of our subsidiaries is applause. But it is not the indiscriminate applause of a Pollyanna. Rather it is informed applause based upon the two long careers we have spent intensively observing business performance and managerial behavior. Charlie and I have seen so much of the ordinary in business that we can truly appreciate a virtuoso performance. Only one response to the 1987 performance of our operating managers is appropriate: sustained, deafening applause. <br /><br />我们对于这些所属事业单位最重要的支持就是适时地给予掌声，但这绝对不是在做烂好人，相反地这是长久下来我们深入观察这些企业的经营结果与管理当局的作为所给予的正面肯定，我们两个人这些年来看过太多平庸企业的表现，所以我们是真正地珍惜他们艺术级的演出，对于1987年旗下子公司整体的表现，我们只能报以热烈的掌声，而且是震耳欲聋的掌声。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Sources of Reported Earnings <br /><br />盈余的来源</p>
<p class="song12b">&nbsp;</p>
<p class="song12b"><br />The table on the following page shows the major sources of Berkshire's reported earnings. In the table, amortization of Goodwill and other major purchase-price accounting adjustments are not charged against the specific businesses to which they apply but, instead, are aggregated and shown separately. In effect, this procedure presents the earnings of our businesses as they would have been reported had we not purchased them. In appendixes to my letters in the 1983 and 1986 annual reports, I explained why this form of presentation seems to us to be more useful to investors and managers than the standard GAAP presentation, which makes purchase-price adjustments on a business-by business basis. The total net earnings we show in the table are, of course, identical to the GAAP figures in our audited financial statements. <br /><br />下表显示Berkshire主要盈余的来源，其中商誉的摊销与购买法的会计调整数，特别从各个企业挑出汇总成单独一栏，事实上这样的目的是为了让旗下事业的经营绩效，不因我们买下他们而有所影响，在1983与1986年的年报中，我已不只一次的解释这样的表达方式会比依照一般公认会计原则更符合管理当局与投资者的需要，当然最后加总结算的数字，还是会与会计师出具的财务报表上的盈余数字完全一致。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">In the Business Segment Data on pages 36-38 and in the Management's Discussion section on pages 40-44 you will find much additional information about our businesses. In these sections you will also find our segment earnings reported on a GAAP basis. I urge you to read that material, as well as Charlie Munger's letter to Wesco shareholders, describing the various businesses of that subsidiary, which starts on page 45. <br /><br />在后面的部门别信息中，大家可以找到个别事业的详细信息，除此之外，我也强烈建议大家一定要看查理写给Wesco股东叙述其旗下事业情况的一封信</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b"><br />1987 Unit:US'000<br />Earnings Before Income Tax After Income Tax<br />Percent Total Berkshire Share Berkshire Share<br />Earnings from Operation <br />Insurance Group <br />Underwriting (55,429) (20,696)<br />Net Investment Income 152,483 136,658 <br /><br /><br /><br />Buffalio News 39,410 21,304 <br />Fechheimer 13,332 6,580 <br /><br />Kirby 22,408 12,891 <br /><br />Nebraska Furniture Mart 16,837 7,554 <br /><br />Scott Fetzer-Diversified 30,591 17,555 <br />See's Candies 31,693 17,363 <br />Wesco Financial Corporation-Parent 6,209 4,978 <br />World Book 25,745 15,136 <br />Amortization of Goodwill (2,862) (2,862)<br />Interest on Debt (11,474) (5,905)<br />Shareholder's Contribution (4,938) (2,963)<br />Other 16,914 7,152 <br />0 280,919 　 214,745 <br /><br />Realized Securities Gain 27,319 19,807 <br />Total Earnings-all entities 0 308,238 　 234,552 </p>
</blockquote>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<blockquote>
<p class="song12b">Gypsy Rose Lee announced on one of her later birthdays: &quot;I have everything I had last year; it's just that it's all two inches lower.&quot; As the table shows, during 1987 almost all of our businesses aged in a more upbeat way. <br /><br />Gypsy Rose Lee在她晚年的一场生日宴会上宣布：「我还是拥有去年所有的一切，现在唯一的差别是全部都矮了两吋。」如同本表所示，在1987年几乎我们所有的事业都又成长的一岁。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">There's not a lot new to report about these businesses - and that's good, not bad. Severe change and exceptional returns usually don't mix. Most investors, of course, behave as if just the opposite were true. That is, they usually confer the highest price-earnings ratios on exotic-sounding businesses that hold out the promise of feverish change. That prospect lets investors fantasize about future profitability rather than face today's business realities. For such investor-dreamers, any blind date is preferable to one with the girl next door, no matter how desirable she may be. <br /><br />我们旗下这些事业实在是没有什么新的变化可以特别提出报告的，所谓没有消息就是好消息，剧烈的变动通常不会有特别好的绩效，当然这与大部分的投资人认为的刚好相反，大家通常将最高的本益比给予那些擅长画大饼的企业，这些美好的远景会让投资人不顾现实经营的情况，而一昧幻想未来可能的获利美梦，对于这种爱做梦的投资人来说，任何路边的野花，都会比邻家的女孩来的具吸引力，不管后者是如何贤慧。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Experience, however, indicates that the best business returns are usually achieved by companies that are doing something quite similar today to what they were doing five or ten years ago. That is no argument for managerial complacency. Businesses always have opportunities to improve service, product lines, manufacturing techniques, and the like, and obviously these opportunities should be seized. But a business that constantly encounters major change also encounters many chances for major error. Furthermore, economic terrain that is forever shifting violently is ground on which it is difficult to build a fortress-like business franchise. Such a franchise is usually the key to sustained high returns. <br /><br />经验显示，能够创造盈余新高的企业，现在做生意的方式通常与其五年前甚至十年前没有多大的差异，当然管理当局绝对不能够太过自满，因为企业总有不断的机会可以改善本身的服务、产品线、制造能力等等，且绝对必须要好好把握，不过一家公司若是为了改变而改变，反而可能增加犯错的机会，讲的更深入一点，在一块动荡不安的土地之上，是不太可能建造一座固若金汤的城堡，而具有这样稳定特质的企业却是持续创造高获利的关键。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">The Fortune study I mentioned earlier supports our view. Only 25 of the 1,000 companies met two tests of economic excellence - an average return on equity of over 20% in the ten years, 1977 through 1986, and no year worse than 15%. These business superstars were also stock market superstars: During the decade, 24 of the 25 outperformed the S&amp;P 500. <br /><br />先前提到财星杂志的研究，可以充分支持我的论点，在1977年到1986年间，总计1,000家中只有25家能够达到连续十年平均股东权益报酬率达到20%的标准，且没有一年低于15%的双重标准，而这些优质企业同时也是股票市场上的宠儿，在所有的25家中有24家的表现超越S&amp;P500指数。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">The Fortune champs may surprise you in two respects. First, most use very little leverage compared to their interest-paying capacity. Really good businesses usually don't need to borrow. Second, except for one company that is &quot;high-tech&quot; and several others that manufacture ethical drugs, the companies are in businesses that, on balance, seem rather mundane. Most sell non-sexy products or services in much the same manner as they did ten years ago (though in larger quantities now, or at higher prices, or both). The record of these 25 companies confirms that making the most of an already strong business franchise, or concentrating on a single winning business theme, is what usually produces exceptional economics. <br /><br />这些财富之星可能让你大开眼界，首先相对于本身支付利息的能力，他们所运用的财务杠杆极其有限，一家真正好的公司是不需要借钱的，第二除了有一家是所谓的高科技公司，另外少数几家属于制药业以外，大多数的公司产业相当平凡普通，大部分现在销售的产品或服务与十年前大致相同，(虽然数量或是价格、或是两者都有，比以前高很多)，这些公司的记录显示，充分运用现有产业地位，或是专注在单一领导的产品品牌之上通常是创造企业暴利的不二法门。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Berkshire's experience has been similar. Our managers have produced extraordinary results by doing rather ordinary things - but doing them exceptionally well. Our managers protect their franchises, they control costs, they search for new products and markets that build on their existing strengths and they don't get diverted. They work exceptionally hard at the details of their businesses, and it shows. <br /><br />事实上我们在Berkshire的经验正是如此，我们的专业经理人所以能够缔造优异的成绩，所从事的业务相当平凡，但重点是把它们做到极致，经理人致力于保护企业本身、控制成本，基于现有能力寻找新产品与新市场来巩固既有优势，他们从不受外界诱惑，钜细靡遗地专注于企业之上，而其成绩有目共睹。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /><br /><br />Here's an update:<br /><br />以下是近况报导</p>
<p class="song12b">&nbsp;</p>
<p class="song12b"><br />Agatha Christie, whose husband was an archaeologist, said that was the perfect profession for one's spouse: &quot;The older you become, the more interested they are in you.&quot; It is students of business management, not archaeologists, who should be interested in Mrs. B (Rose Blumkin), the 94-year-old chairman of Nebraska Furniture Mart. <br /><br />克里思蒂小姐嫁给一位考古学家，她曾说︰「配偶最理想的职业就是考古学家，因为你越老，他就越有兴趣」，事实上应该是商学院而非考古学系的学生，需要多多研究B太太-这位NFM高龄94岁的负责人。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Fifty years ago Mrs. B started the business with $500, and today NFM is far and away the largest home furnishings store in the country. Mrs. B continues to work seven days a week at the job from the opening of each business day until the close. She buys, she sells, she manages - and she runs rings around the competition. It's clear to me that she's gathering speed and may well reach her full potential in another five or ten years. Therefore, I've persuaded the Board to scrap our mandatory retirement-at-100 policy. (And it's about time: With every passing year, this policy has seemed sillier to me.) <br /><br />五十年以前B太太以五百块美金创业，到如今NFM已是全美远近驰名的家具量贩店，但是B太太还是一样从早到晚，一个礼拜工作七天，掌管采购、销售与管理，我很确定她现在正蓄势待发，准备在未来的五到十年内，全力冲刺再创高峰，也因此我已说服董事会取消一百岁强迫退休的年龄上限，(也该是时候了，随着时光的流逝，越来我越相信这个规定是该修改了) </p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Net sales of NFM were $142.6 million in 1987, up 8% from 1986. There's nothing like this store in the country, and there's nothing like the family Mrs. B has produced to carry on: Her son Louie, and his three boys, Ron, Irv and Steve, possess the business instincts, integrity and drive of Mrs. B. They work as a team and, strong as each is individually, the whole is far greater than the sum of the parts. <br /><br />去年(1987年) NFM的销货净额是一亿四千多万美元，较前一年度成长8%，这是全美独一无二的一家店，也是全美独一无二的家族，B太太跟她三个儿子拥有天生的生意头脑、品格与冲劲，且分工合作，团结一致。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">The superb job done by the Blumkins benefits us as owners, but even more dramatically benefits NFM's customers. They saved about $30 million in 1987 by buying from NFM. In other words, the goods they bought would have cost that much more if purchased elsewhere. <br /><br />B太太家族的杰出表现，不但让身为股东的我们受益良多，NFM的客户们更受惠更大，只要选择NFM的产品据估计光是1987年就可省下至少三千万美元，换句话说若客户到别处去买可能要贵上这么多钱。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">You'll enjoy an anonymous letter I received last August: &quot;Sorry to see Berkshire profits fall in the second quarter. One way you may gain back part of your lost. (sic) Check the pricing at The Furniture Mart. You will find that they are leaving 10% to 20% on the table. This additional profit on $140 million of sells (sic) is $28 million. Not small change in anyone's pocket! Check out other furniture, carpet, appliance and T.V. dealers. Your raising prices to a reasonable profit will help. Thank you. <br />/signed/ A Competitor.&quot; <br /><br />去年我接到一封无名氏所写的相当有趣的信︰「很遗憾看到Berkshire第二季的获利下滑，想要提高 贵公司的获利吗? 有一个不错的法子，去查查NFM的产品售价，你会发现他们把一、两成的获利空间白白奉送给客户，算算一年一亿四千万的营业额，那可是二千八百万的利润，这个数字实在是相当可观，再看看别家家具、地毯或是电器用品的价格，你就会发现把价格调回来是再合理不过了<br />谢谢<br />一位竞争同业留」</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">NFM will continue to grow and prosper by following Mrs. B's maxim: &quot;Sell cheap and tell the truth.&quot; <br /><br />展望未来NFM在B太太「价格公道实在」的座右铭领导下，必将继续成长茁壮。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Among dominant papers of its size or larger, the Buffalo News continues to be the national leader in two important ways: (1) its weekday and Sunday penetration rate (the percentage of households in the paper's primary market area that purchase it); and (2) its &quot;news-hole&quot; percentage (the portion of the paper devoted to news).<br /><br />在全美相同规模(或甚至更大)的报纸中，水牛城报纸有两个特点第一、它在平时与假日的普及率最高(即订户数在该地区家户数的比率)，第二是新闻比率最高(新闻版面占总版面的比率)</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">It may not be coincidence that one newspaper leads in both categories: an exceptionally &quot;newsrich&quot; product makes for broad audience appeal, which in turn leads to high penetration. Of course, quantity must be matched by quality. This not only means good reporting and good writing; it means freshness and relevance. To be indispensable, a paper must promptly tell its readers many things they want to know but won't otherwise learn until much later, if ever. </p>
<p class="song12b">事实上一份报纸能够同时拥有这两项特色绝对不是巧合，因为新闻内容越丰富，也就越能吸引更广泛的读者，从而提高普及率，当然除了量之外，新闻品质也很重要，这不但代表要有好的报导与编辑，也代表要有实时性与关联性，为了让报纸成为读者们不可或缺的东西，它必须能够马上告诉读者许多他们想要知道的事情，而不是等读者们都已知道后，事后报纸才刊登出来。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">At the News, we put out seven fresh editions every 24 hours, each one extensively changed in content. Here's a small example that may surprise you: We redo the obituary page in every edition of the News, or seven times a day. Any obituary added runs through the next six editions until the publishing cycle has been completed. <br /><br />以水牛城日报来说我们平均每24小时出七个版本，每次内容都会更新，举一个简单的例子就足以让人感到惊奇，光是每天的讣文就会更新七次，也就是说每则新增的讣文会在报纸上连续刊登七个版。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">It's vital, of course, for a newspaper to cover national and international news well and in depth. But it is also vital for it to do what only a local newspaper can: promptly and extensively chronicle the personally-important, otherwise-unreported details of community life. Doing this job well requires a very broad range of news - and that means lots of space, intelligently used. <br /><br />当然一份新闻也必须要有有深度的全国与国际性新闻，但一份地区性的报纸也必须及时并广泛地报导社区动态，要把这点做好除了必须要有足够的空间，并加以有效地运用。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Our news hole was about 50% in 1987, just as it has been year after year. If we were to cut it to a more typical 40%, we would save approximately $4 million annually in newsprint costs. That interests us not at all - and it won't interest us even if, for one reason or another, our profit margins should significantly shrink. <br /><br />如同往年，去年(1987年)我们的新闻比大约是50%，若是我们把这比率砍到一般40%的水准，我们一年约可省下四百万美金的新闻成本，但我们从来都不会考虑如此做，就算哪一天我们的获利大幅缩减也是一样。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Charlie and I do not believe in flexible operating budgets, as in &quot;Non-direct expenses can be X if revenues are Y, but must be reduced if revenues are Y - 5%.&quot; Should we really cut our news hole at the Buffalo News, or the quality of product and service at See's, simply because profits are down during a given year or quarter? Or, conversely, should we add a staff economist, a corporate strategist, an institutional advertising campaign or something else that does Berkshire no good simply because the money currently is rolling in? That makes no sense to us. We neither understand the adding of unneeded people or activities because profits are booming, nor the cutting of essential people or activities because profitability is shrinking. That kind of yo-yo approach is neither business-like nor humane. Our goal is to do what makes sense for Berkshire's customers and employees at all times, and never to add the unneeded. (&quot;But what about the corporate jet?&quot; you rudely ask. Well, occasionally a man must rise above principle.) <br /><br />基本上查理跟我都不太相信营业预算，像是「间接费用必须缩减，因为预估营业收入不若以往」之类的说法，。如果有一天我们必须降低新闻比率或是牺牲喜斯糖果的品质与服务，以提升疲弱不振的获利表现，或是相反地因为Berkshire太多钱以致现金花不完，就去聘请经济分析师、公关顾问等对公司一点帮助都没有的人。这些做法一点道理都没有，我们完全不了解为何有些公司因为公司赚太多钱就增加一些没有用的人来消化预算，或是因为获利不佳就砍掉一些关键的人事，这种变来变去的方式既不符合人性也不符合商业原则，我们的目标是不论如何都要做对Berkshire的客户与员工有意义的事，(你可能会问那公司专机又是怎么一回事??嗯!我想有时一个人总会有忘了原则的时候)</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Although the News' revenues have grown only moderately since 1984, superb management by Stan Lipsey, its publisher, has produced excellent profit growth. For several years, I have incorrectly predicted that profit margins at the News would fall. This year I will not let vou down: Margins will, without question, shrink in 1988 and profit may fall as well. Skyrocketing newsprint costs will be the major cause.<br /><br />虽然水牛城新闻的营收最近几年只有些微的成长，但在发行人Stan Lipsey杰出的管理之下，获利却反而大幅成长，有好几年我甚至错误地预测该报的获利会下滑，而同样地今年我也不会让大家失望，1988年不管是毛利或者是获利都会缩水，其中新闻印刷成本的飞涨是主要的原因。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Fechheimer Bros. Company is another of our family businesses - and, like the Blumkins, what a family. Three generations of Heldmans have for decades consistently, built the sales and profits of this manufacturer and distributor of uniforms. In the year that Berkshire acquired its controlling interest in Fechheimer - 1986 - profits were a record. The Heldmans didn't slow down after that. Last year earnings increased substantially and the outlook is good for 1988. <br /><br />费区海默兄弟公司是我们旗下另一个家族企业，而就像Blumkins一样是个非常杰出的家族，Heldmans家族三代几十年来，努力不懈地建立了这家制服制造与销售公司，而在Berkshire取得所有权的1986年，该公司的获利更创新高，此后Heldmans家族并未停下脚步，去年(1987年)盈余又大幅增加，而展望今年(1988年)前景更是看好。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">There's nothing magic about the Uniform business; the only magic is in the Heldmans. Bob, George, Gary, Roger and Fred know the business inside and out, and they have fun running it. We are fortunate to be in partnership with them.<br /><br />在制服事业大概没有什么出奇的事，唯一的惊奇就是Heldmans家族，Bob、George、Gary、Roger跟Fred，对于这行业熟的不能再熟，同时也乐在其中，我们何其有幸能与他们一起合作共事。</p>
<p class="song12b">&nbsp;</p>
<p class="song12b"><br />Chuck Huggins continues to set new records at See's, just as he has ever since we put him in charge on the day of our purchase some 16 years ago. In 1987, volume hit a new high at slightly Under 25 million pounds. For the second year in a row, moreover, same-store sales, measured in pounds, were virtually unchanged. In case you are wondering, that represents improvement: In each of the previous six years, same-store sales had fallen. <br /><br />Chuck Huggins持续为喜斯糖果缔造新猷，自从十六年前我们买下这家公司，并请他主掌这项事业时，便一直是如此，在1987年糖果销售量创下近二千五百万英镑的新高，同时连续第二年单店平均营业额维持不坠，你可能会觉得没什么了不起，事实上这已是相当大的改善，因为过去连续六年数字都呈现下滑的趋势。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Although we had a particularly strong 1986 Christmas season, we racked up better store-for-store comparisons in the 1987 Christmas season than at any other time of the year. Thus, the seasonal factor at See's becomes even more extreme. In 1987, about 85% of our profit was earned during December. <br /><br />虽然1986年的圣诞节特别旺，但1987年的记录比86年还要好，使得季节因素对喜斯糖果来说越来越重要，经统计去年一整年约有85%的获利是在十二月单月所创造的。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Candy stores are fun to visit, but most have not been fun for their owners. From what we can learn, practically no one besides See's has made significant profits in recent years from the operation of candy shops. Clearly, Chuck's record at See's is not due to a rising industry tide. Rather, it is a one-of-a-kind performance. <br /><br />糖果店是个很好玩的地方，但对大部分的老板来说就不那么有趣了，就我们所知，这几年来除了喜斯赚大钱之外，其它糖果店的经营皆相当惨淡，所以很明显的喜斯搭的并不是顺风车，它的表现是扎扎实实的。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">His achievement requires an excellent product - which we have - but it also requires genuine affection for the customer. Chuck is 100% customer-oriented, and his attitude sets the tone for the rest of the See's organization. <br /><br />这项成就当然需要优秀的产品，这个倒不是问题，因为我们确实拥有，但除此之外它还需要对客户衷心的服务，Chuck可以说是百分之百地为客户设想，而他的态度更直接感染到公司上下所有的员工。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Here's an example of Chuck in action: At See's we regularly add new pieces of candy to our mix and also cull a few to keep our product line at about 100 varieties. Last spring we selected 14 items for elimination. Two, it turned out, were badly missed by our customers, who wasted no time in letting us know what they thought of our judgment: &quot;A pox on all in See's who participated in the abominable decision...;&quot; &quot;May your new truffles melt in transit, may they sour in people's mouths, may your costs go up and your profits go down...;&quot; &quot;We are investigating the possibility of obtaining a mandatory injunction requiring you to supply...;&quot; You get the picture. In all, we received many hundreds of letters. <br /><br />以下是一个具体的例证，在喜斯我们通常会定期增添新的口味并删除旧的口味以维持大约一百种组合，去年我们淘汰了14种口味，结果其中有两种让我们的客户无法忘怀，而不断地表达他们对我们这种举动的不满，「愿喜斯所有做出这种卑鄙决定的相关人士嘴巴流脓长疮；愿你们新的巧克力糖在运送途中融化；愿你们吃到酸掉的糖果；愿你们的亏大钱；我们正试图寻求要求你们恢复供应原有口味的法院强制令」，总计最后我们收到好几百封的抱怨信。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Chuck not only reintroduced the pieces, he turned this miscue into an opportunity. Each person who had written got a complete and honest explanation in return. Said Chuck's letter: &quot;Fortunately, when I make poor decisions, good things often happen as a result...;&quot; And with the letter went a special gift certificate.<br /><br />为此Chuck不但重新推出原来的口味，他还将危机化为转机，所有来信的客户都得到完整且诚实的回复，信上是这样写的︰「虽然我们做出错误的决定，但值得庆幸的是最后得以以喜剧收场」，随信还附赠一个特别的小礼物。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">See's increased prices only slightly in the last two years. In 1988 we have raised prices somewhat more, though still moderately. To date, sales have been weak and it may be difficult for See's to improve its earnings this year. <br /><br />过去两年喜斯糖果仅稍微地涨价，在今年(1988年)我们仍会继续调涨价格，幅度还算合理，只是截至目前为止销售持续低迷，预计今年公司盈余将难再有继续成长的可能性。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">World Book, Kirby, and the Scott Fetzer Manufacturing Group are all under the management of Ralph Schey. And what a lucky thing for us that they are. I told you last year that Scott Fetzer performance in 1986 had far exceeded the expectations that Charlie and I had at the time of our purchase. Results in 1987 were even better. Pre-tax earnings rose 10% while average capital employed declined significantly.<br /><br />世界百科全书、寇比吸尘器与史考特费兹制造集团皆由Ralph所领导，很高兴我们能做这样的安排，去年我曾告诉各位史考特费兹集团在我们买下公司的当年度-1986年的表现超乎预期，但去年1987年的表现更出色，税前获利成长了10%，但所耗费的资金却较前年大幅缩减。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Ralph's mastery of the 19 businesses for which he is responsible is truly amazing, and he has also attracted some outstanding managers to run them. We would love to find a few additional units that could be put under Ralph's wing. <br /><br />Ralph同时掌管19项事业的方式实在是令人叹为观止，同时他也吸引了一群优秀的经理人协助他经营事业，我们很乐意在多找一些事业交到Ralph旗下去经营。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">The businesses of Scott Fetzer are too numerous to describe in detail. Let's just update you on one of our favorites: At the end of 1987, World Book introduced its most dramatically-revised edition since 1962. The number of color photos was increased from 14,000 to 24,000; over 6,000 articles were revised; 840 new contributors were added. Charlie and I recommend this product to you and your family, as we do World Book's products for younger children, Childcraft and Early World of Learning. <br /><br />由于史考特费兹的事业范围过于繁杂，在此不便详述，这里谨就其中一项我们的最爱-世界百科全书加以介绍，去年底世界百科全书推出自1962年以来改版最多的最新版本，全套书中的彩色照片从14,000祯增加到24,000祯，超过6,000篇文章从新编写，840位作者参与；查理跟我衷心向您与您的家庭推荐包含世界百科全书与儿童工艺等一系列的套书。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">In 1987, World Book unit sales in the United States increased for the fifth consecutive year. International sales and profits also grew substantially. The outlook is good for Scott Fetzer operations in aggregate, and for World Book in particular. <br /><br />在去年该套书在美国地区销售量连续第五年成长，国外地区的销量与获利亦大幅增加，史考特费兹集团前景看好，尤其世界百科全书更是如此。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b"><br />Insurance Operations <br /><br />保险事业营运</p>
<p class="song12b">&nbsp;</p>
<p class="song12b"><br />Shown below is an updated version of our usual table presenting key figures for the insurance industry: <br /><br />下表是我们惯用保险业主要指数的最近更新数字</p>
<p class="song12b">&nbsp;</p>
<p class="song12b"><br />Yearly Change in Combined Ratio Yearly Change in GNP Deflators<br />Premiums Written Incurred Loss<br />1981 3.8% 106.0% 6.5% 9.7%<br />1982 4.4% 109.8% 8.4% 6.4%<br />1983 4.6% 112.0% 6.8% 3.9%<br />1984 9.2% 117.9% 16.9% 3.8%<br />1985 22.1% 116.5% 16.1% 3.3%<br />1986 (Rev.) 22.2% 108.0% 13.5% 2.6%<br />1987 (Est.) 8.7% 104.7% 6.8% 3.0%<br /><br /><br />The combined ratio represents total insurance costs (losses incurred plus expenses) compared to revenue from premiums: A ratio below 100 indicates an underwriting profit, and one above 100 indicates a loss. When the investment income that an insurer earns from holding on to policyholders' funds (&quot;the float&quot;) is taken into account, a combined ratio in the 107-111 range typically produces an overall break-even result, exclusive of earnings on the funds provided by shareholders. <br /><br />综合比率代表所有保险成本(发生损失加上费用)占保费收入的比率，一百以下表示有承保的获利，一百以上则有承保的损失，若考量保险公司利用保费收入(浮存金)所赚取的投资收益列入计算，则107到111之间大约是损益两平点，当然这是不包含公司自有资金所运用的收益。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">The math of the insurance business, encapsulated by the table, is not very complicated. In years when the industry's annual gain in revenues (premiums) pokes along at 4% or 5%, underwriting losses are sure to mount. That is not because auto accidents, fires, windstorms and the like are occurring more frequently, nor has it lately been the fault of general inflation. Today, social and judicial inflation are the major culprits; the cost of entering a courtroom has simply ballooned. Part of the jump in cost arises from skyrocketing verdicts, and part from the tendency of judges and juries to expand the coverage of insurance policies beyond that contemplated by the insurer when the policies were written. Seeing no let-up in either trend, we continue to believe that the industry's revenues must grow at about 10% annually for it to just hold its own in terms of profitability, even though general inflation may be running at a considerably lower rate. <br /><br />保险事业的数字，若以上面那张简表来说明，事实上并不会太复杂，当同业平均保费收入年成长只在4%或5%徘徊，则当年承保损失一定会上升，原因不在于车祸、火灾、暴风等意外事件发生更频繁，也不是因为一般通货膨胀的关系。主要的祸首在于今天社会与司法过度膨胀，法律诉讼费用暴增，一方面是因为诉讼更频繁，一方面是由于陪审团与法官倾向扩大保险单上的保险理赔范围，若这种乱象不能加以抑止，则保险公司每年至少要有10%以上的保费收入年成长，才有办法收支打平，即使在通货膨胀相对温和的状况下也是如此。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">The strong revenue gains of 1985-87 almost guaranteed the industry an excellent underwriting performance in 1987 and, indeed, it was a banner year. But the news soured as the quarters rolled by: Best's estimates that year-over-year volume increases were 12.9%, 11.1%, 5.7%, and 5.6%. In 1988, the revenue gain is certain to be far below our 10% &quot;equilibrium&quot; figure. Clearly, the party is over. <br /><br />过去三年来保费收入的大幅成长几乎可以确定今年同业的绩效都会相当不错，事实证明也是如此，不过接下来的情况可就不太妙了，根据Best's统计预估，1988年的每季的成长率将由12.9%按季逐渐下滑至11.1%、5.7%、5.6%，可以确定的是1988年的保费成长一定会低于10%的损益两平点，很明显的好日子已经不多了。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">However, earnings will not immediately sink. A lag factor exists in this industry: Because most policies are written for a one-year term, higher or lower insurance prices do not have their full impact on earnings until many months after they go into effect. Thus, to resume our metaphor, when the party ends and the bar is closed, you are allowed to finish your drink. If results are not hurt by a major natural catastrophe, we predict a small climb for the industry's combined ratio in 1988, followed by several years of larger increases. <br /><br />然而盈余数字却不会马上滑落，这个产业具有递延的现象，因为大部分的保单都是一年期，所以对于损益的影响会在往后的一年之间陆续浮现，因此打个比方，在party结束、酒吧关门之前，你还可以把手上的那杯喝完了再走，假设往后几年没有发生什么天灾地变，我们预期1988年的同业平均综合比率将会微幅上扬，紧接下来的几年则会大幅攀升。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">The insurance industry is cursed with a set of dismal economic characteristics that make for a poor long-term outlook: hundreds of competitors, ease of entry, and a product that cannot be differentiated in any meaningful way. In such a commodity-like business, only a very low-cost operator or someone operating in a protected, and usually small, niche can sustain high profitability levels. <br /><br />保险业最近受到几项不利的经济因素所困而前景黯淡，数以百计的竞争对手、进入障碍低、无法大幅差异化的产品特性，在这种类似商品型产业之中，只有营运成本低的公司或是一些受到保护的利基产品才有可能有长期获利成长的机会。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">When shortages exist, however, even commodity businesses flourish. The insurance industry enjoyed that kind of climate for a while but it is now gone. One of the ironies of capitalism is that most managers in commodity industries abhor shortage conditions - even though those are the only circumstances permitting them good returns. Whenever shortages appear, the typical manager simply can't wait to expand capacity and thereby plug the hole through which money is showering upon him. This is precisely what insurance managers did in 1985-87, confirming again Disraeli's observation: &quot;What we learn from history is that we do not learn from history.&quot; <br /><br />当产品供给短缺时，即使是商品化产业也能蓬勃发展，不过在保险业界，这种好日子早就已经过去了，资本主义最讽刺的地方就是商品型产业大部分的经理人都痛恨商品短缺不足，但偏偏这是唯一可能让这些公司有获利的机会，当短缺出现时，经理人便会迫不及待地想要扩充产能，这无异是将源源不断流入现金的水龙头关掉一样，这就是过去三年保险公司经理人的最佳写照，再次验证Disraeli的名言：「我们唯一从历史得到的教训就是我们从来无法从历史得到教训！」</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">At Berkshire, we work to escape the industry's commodity economics in two ways. First, we differentiate our product by our financial strength, which exceeds that of all others in the industry. This strength, however, is limited in its usefulness. It means nothing in the personal insurance field: The buyer of an auto or homeowners policy is going to get his claim paid even if his insurer fails (as many have). It often means nothing in the commercial insurance arena: When times are good, many major corporate purchasers of insurance and their brokers pay scant attention to the insurer's ability to perform under the more adverse conditions that may exist, say, five years later when a complicated claim is finally resolved. (Out of sight, out of mind - and, later on, maybe out-of-pocket.) <br /><br />在Berkshire，我们努力避免自己的公司成为商品化的企业，首先我们凭借着自己强大的资金实力，来凸显我们产品的不同，但这种效果实在是有限，尤其在个人险的部份，因为即使是其所投保的保险公司倒闭(事实上这种状况还不少)，汽车险或或房屋险的购买者仍可获得理赔，在商业险的部份也是如此，当情况好时，许多大企业投保户与保险掮客都不太关心保险业者的财务状况，即使是比较复杂的案件，顶多拖个三、五年，最后还是有办法可以解决，(眼不见为净的结果，可能会让你的口袋落空)</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Periodically, however, buyers remember Ben Franklin's observation that it is hard for an empty sack to stand upright and recognize their need to buy promises only from insurers that have enduring financial strength. It is then that we have a major competitive advantage. When a buyer really focuses on whether a $10 million claim can be easily paid by his insurer five or ten years down the road, and when he takes into account the possibility that poor underwriting conditions may then coincide with depressed financial markets and defaults by reinsurer, he will find only a few companies he can trust. Among those, Berkshire will lead the pack.<br /><br />不过一段期间保户会偶尔想起富兰克林所说的空沙包很难站的直挺，并了解寻找一个可靠稳定的保险公司的重要性，这时我们发挥优势的机会就来了，当客户认真想到往后五到十年，若是面对景气不佳同时又碰上金融市场低迷，再保业者倒闭频繁等景象时，而怀疑保险公司是否仍有能力轻松地支付一千万美元理赔金时，那么他可以挑选的保险公司其实是相当有限的，在所有的沙包之中，Berkshire无疑是站得最直挺的一个。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Our second method of differentiating ourselves is the total indifference to volume that we maintain. In 1989, we will be perfectly willing to write five times as much business as we write in 1988 - or only one-fifth as much. We hope, of course, that conditions will allow us large volume. But we cannot control market prices. If they are unsatisfactory, we will simply do very little business. No other major insurer acts with equal restraint. <br /><br />我们第二个方法是试着让我们完全不理会签发保单的数量，在下一个年度我们很愿意一口气签出比前一年多五倍的保单，但若是只能签发五分之一的保单也无所谓，当然情况若许可我们希望是越多越好，但我们实在是无法掌握市场价格，若价格不理想，我们就会暂时退出市场少做一点生意，在同业中再没有其它任何一家保险公司有我们如此高的自制力。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">Three conditions that prevail in insurance, but not in most businesses, allow us our flexibility. First, market share is not an important determinant of profitability: In this business, in contrast to the newspaper or grocery businesses, the economic rule is not survival of the fattest. Second, in many sectors of insurance, including most of those in which we operate, distribution channels are not proprietary and can be easily entered: Small volume this year does not preclude huge volume next year. Third, idle capacity - which in this industry largely means people - does not result in intolerable costs. In a way that industries such as printing or steel cannot, we can operate at quarter-speed much of the time and still enjoy long-term prosperity. <br /><br />在保险业普遍存在的第三种情况，(这在其它产业并不多见)使得我们能保持相当的弹性，第一市场占有率并不绝对等于获利率，不像新闻业或是零售业，最后能够存活的不一定是最肥的那个人，第二许多的保险类种，其中也包含我们所从事的主要险种，销售通路并非只有唯一管道，所以进入障碍低，今年业绩不多，不代表明年就一定会很少，第三闲置的产能，在保险业来说主要是在于人力，这部份并不会造成太大的负担，在印刷或是钢铁业的话就不是如此，我们可以在保持慢速前进的同时，随时蓄势待发准备向前冲刺。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">We follow a price-based-on-exposure, not-on-competition policy because it makes sense for our shareholders. But we're happy to report that it is also pro-social. This policy means that we are always available, given prices that we believe are adequate, to write huge volumes of almost any type of property-casualty insurance. Many other insurers follow an in-and-out approach. When they are &quot;out&quot; - because of mounting losses, capital inadequacy, or whatever - we are available. Of course, when others are panting to do business we are also available - but at such times we often find ourselves priced above the market. In effect, we supply insurance buyers and brokers with a large reservoir of standby capacity. <br /><br />我们完全以价格为导向(而非竞争)来决定我们的风险部位，因为如此对于股东投资者才有意义，但同时我们也很高兴，因为这对社会同样也有助益，这个原则代表我们随时准备就绪，只要市场价格合理，我们愿意随时进场承接任何产物意外险的保单，配合许多保险同业遵循的进出策略，当他们因为损失扩大、资本不足等原因退出市场时，我们随时可以接替，当然当一些同业进来杀价抢食市场时，虽然我们也愿意继续服务大众，但由于我们的报价高于市场价格，所以只好暂时退出观望，基本上我们扮演的是市场供需调节的角色。</p>
<p class="song12b"><br /></p>
<p class="song12b">One story from mid-1987 illustrates some consequences of our pricing policy: One of the largest family-owned insurance brokers in the country is headed by a fellow who has long been a shareholder of Berkshire. This man handles a number of large risks that are candidates for placement with our New York office. Naturally, he does the best he can for his clients. And, just as naturally, when the insurance market softened dramatically in 1987 he found prices at other insurers lower than we were willing to offer. His reaction was, first, to place all of his business elsewhere and, second, to buy more stock in Berkshire. Had we been really competitive, he said, we would have gotten his insurance business but he would not have bought our stock. <br /><br />1987年中的一个事件可以充分说明我们的价格政策，在纽约有一家家族经营的保险经纪公司是由一个Berkshire多年资深的老股东所领导，这老兄手上有许多客户是我们所想要交往的，但基于职业道德他仍然必须为他的客户争取到最好的权益，所以当保险市场价格大幅滑落，他发现我们的保费比起其它同业贵了许多时，他第一个反应就是赶快把他客户的保单从Berkshire转移到别的保险公司，接下来第二的动作就是买进更多Berkshire的股票，他说要是那一天Berkshire也一样以降价竞争作为因应，那么他就会把生意给Berkshire做，但他可能就会把Berkshire的股票卖光。</p>
</blockquote>]]>
</description>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1175329.html</guid>
<subject>笑月谈股</subject>
<author>duxiaoy123</author>
<category>笑月谈股</category>
<pubDate>Tue, 13 Nov 2007 22:53:03 CST </pubDate>
</item>

<item>
<title>黄金：被软禁的货币之王</title>
<link>http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1175310.html</link>
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<![CDATA[黄金拥有很多不稳定的因素，几个大国政府一直试图震荡黄金价格，就是其中之一。如果你关注一下过去20年来，政府对黄金的政策，就会发现，在金价高达800美元一盎司（1980年）的时候，没有政府出售黄金。那时，出售应该是很合算的买卖，而且可以稳定金价。但是政府却在最低价时（1999年）出售黄金，英国政府正是如此。政府这种在最低价抛售黄金的做法，正是造成金价不稳定的因素之一。<br /><br />　　罗伯特&middot;蒙代尔，1999年<br /><br />　　蒙代尔所说的黄金不稳定因素，正是1980年以来，国际银行家妖魔化黄金的整体战略的一个重要组成部分。但是，对黄金价格的操纵却是一个布置严密、手法高超、令人难以察觉的天才计划。能在20多年的时间里，成功压制黄金价格，在人类历史上还是头一回。<br /><br />　　最让人无法理解的，要算英格兰银行在1999年5月7日悍然宣布卖掉一半的黄金储备（415吨）的声明了。这是英国自拿破仑战争以来最大规模的黄金抛售。这一石破天惊的消息，使本已疲软的国际金价狂跌到280美元一盎司。<br /><br />　　人们不禁狐疑，英格兰银行究竟要干吗？投资吗？不像。要是投资，它应该在1980年以800美元一盎司卖出，再买进当时高达13%回报率的美国30年国债，那早就赚大发了。结果英格兰银行硬要在1999年，以280美元的接近历史最低价出售黄金，再去投资当时回报不到5%的美国国债，难怪蒙代尔大呼看不懂。<br /><br />　　是英格兰银行不懂做生意吗？当然不是。英格兰银行从1694年成立算起，雄霸国际金融市场近300年，堪称现代金融业的老祖宗。什么样的大风大浪没见过，美联储在它的面前还只是小学生。要说它不懂低买高卖的道理，简直就是天方夜谭。<br /><br />　　英格兰银行违背基本的商业规律行事，只因为一件事，那就是恐惧！它恐惧的，倒不是金价持续下跌而导致黄金储备贬值，恰恰相反，它害怕的是黄金持续上涨！因为在英格兰银行的账目上记录在案的黄金，早已不翼而飞，那些被标注在黄金应收账目下的黄金，可能永远也收不回来了。<br /><br />　　瑞士银行家费迪南&middot;利普斯曾说过一段耐人寻味的话，如果英国人民得知，他们的中央银行是怎样疯狂和轻率地处置人民积累几百年的真正财富&mdash;&mdash;黄金的话，断头台下将是人头滚滚。其实，更为准确地说，要是世界人民最终知道了中央银行家们是如何操纵黄金价格的话，人类历史上最大的金融犯罪行为将大白于天下。<br /><br />　　英格兰银行的黄金到哪里去了呢？原来，早已被&ldquo;租借&rdquo;给了&ldquo;金锭银行家们&rdquo;。<br /><br />　　事情的原委是这样的：90年代初，伦敦-华尔街轴心成功地打垮了日本经济，遏制住了欧洲统一货币进程之后，虽然春风得意，辉煌一时，但是对于黄金这一真正的敌人，却时刻不敢掉以轻心。要知道，欧元与日元对于伦敦-华尔街轴心而言，只是疥癣之疾，黄金才是心腹大患。<br /><br />&nbsp; &nbsp;黄金一旦翻盘，所有法币体系都会臣服。黄金虽然已经不是世界货币，可它始终是制约国际银行家通过通货膨胀劫掠世界人民财富的最大障碍。黄金虽然无声无息地被&ldquo;软禁&rdquo;在货币体系之外，但它的历史地位，和作为真正财富的象征，却无时无刻不在辐射出强大的吸引力。国际上稍有风吹草动，人们就不由自主地奔到黄金的周围，接受它坚实的庇护。要想完全废黜这个&ldquo;货币之王&rdquo;，即使是一手遮天的国际银行家也不敢奢望，他们只能设法&ldquo;永远软禁黄金&rdquo;。<br /><br />　　要做到&ldquo;软禁黄金&rdquo;，就必须使世人&ldquo;看到&rdquo;黄金这个&ldquo;货币之王&rdquo;是多么无能与软弱。它既不能保护人民的储蓄，也无法提供稳定的指标，甚至不能吸引投机之徒的兴趣。<br /><br />　　所以黄金的价格必须被严格控制。<br /><br />　　在吸取了1968年&ldquo;黄金互助基金&rdquo;惨败的教训后，国际银行家痛定思痛，绝不会再犯用实物黄金对抗庞大的市场需求这样愚蠢的错误了。在1980年采用极端的20%的利率暂时压制住了黄金价格，恢复了美元信心之后，他们开始大量使用金融衍生工具这种新的武器。<br /><br />　　兵法上说，攻心为上，攻城为下。国际银行家深谙此道。黄金也好，美元也罢，或是股票、债券、房地产，玩到最高境界，都是玩信心！而金融衍生产品则是超级信心武器。<br /><br />&nbsp; &nbsp;在1987年股灾中成功试爆&ldquo;金融衍生核弹&rdquo;之后，1990年，这一高效能武器又被再次在东京股市上使用，其杀伤力令国际银行家喜出望外。但是，用核爆炸的方式有短期和强烈的效果，对于黄金这种慢性和长期的威胁，则必须使用多种信心武器，并以&ldquo;鸡尾酒式&rdquo;的混合方式进行攻击。（中国证券报&middot;中证网）<br /><br />　　私有银行控制的中央银行&ldquo;出租&rdquo;国家的黄金储备就是手段之一。在20世纪90年代初，国际银行家开始推销一种说法：黄金放在中央银行的仓库里，没有任何利息收入，除了落满灰尘之外，保存还需要另外一笔开支。不如&ldquo;出租&rdquo;给信誉好的金锭银行家，利息可以低到1%，但好歹也是一笔稳定的收入，果然，此法在欧洲很快蔚然成风。<br /><br />　　谁是所谓的金锭银行家呢？以J.P.摩根公司为首的国际银行家们当仁不让。他们以自己&ldquo;良好&rdquo;的信誉，从中央银行手中以1%的超低利息&ldquo;借来&rdquo;黄金，再到黄金市场上出售。拿到手的钱转手就用于购买5%回报率的美国国债，稳吃4%的利差。这被称为&ldquo;黄金套利交易&rdquo;。这样一来，抛售中央银行的黄金既打压了黄金价格，又吃到了利差的美餐，还同时刺激了美国国债的需求，压低了长期利率，真可谓一箭数雕的妙计。<br /><br />　　不过，这里面有一个风险。金锭银行家从中央银行借来的黄金大多有6个月左右的短期合约，但投资的很可能是长期债券。如果中央银行到期索要黄金，或金价持续上涨，金锭银行家的处境就危险了。<br /><br />　　为了&ldquo;对冲&rdquo;这种风险，华尔街的金融天才们把主意打到了黄金生产商身上。他们向黄金生产商反复灌输黄金价格长期必然走低的&ldquo;历史必然&rdquo;，只有现在就锁定未来的出售价格，才能避免将来的损失。另外，国际银行家还可以提供4%左右的低息贷款，供黄金生产商继续勘探和开发之用。这样的利息实在是令人难以拒绝，再加上眼看国际金价一年不如一年，与其等到将来减价出售，还不如现在就把未来的、尚在地下待开采的黄金产量卖个好价钱。这叫做&ldquo;黄金远期合约&rdquo;。<br /><br />　　于是，金锭银行家手中就有了黄金生产商未来的产量，作为偿还中央银行黄金租借的抵押。再加上中央银行家和金锭银行家原本就是一家人，所以&ldquo;租借合约&rdquo;几乎可以无限延期。于是，金锭银行家就有了双保险。<br /><br />　　在这个最初的主意开始运作后不久，天才的华尔街银行家又不断推出新的衍生产品，比如延交现货合同、条件远期合约、变量远期合约、德尔塔对冲和各种期权合约。<br /><br />　　在投资银行的推波助澜之下，黄金生产商纷纷陷入这个前所未有的金融投机活动之中。各国黄金生产商纷纷&ldquo;透支&rdquo;未来，将地下可能的黄金储量统统折算成现有产量进行&ldquo;预售&rdquo;。澳大利亚的黄金生产商甚至将未来7年的黄金产量卖了出去。西非加纳的重要黄金生产商Ashanti更是在高盛和16家银行的&ldquo;参谋&rdquo;之下，购买了总量高达2500份的金融衍生产品的合约。到1999年6月，其对冲账目上的金融资产高达2.9亿美元。评论家纷纷指出，当代的黄金生产商，与其说是在开采黄金，还不如说是以开采黄金为噱头，进行危险的金融投机。<br /><br />　　在黄金生产商掀起的&ldquo;对冲革命&rdquo;浪潮中，巴里克黄金公司可算是名副其实的大哥大。巴里克的对冲规模早已超越了风险控制的合理范畴，说它的策略是金融豪赌也绝不夸张。在其海量的单向卖空黄金的行动中，巴里克无形之间造成了同行之间竞相杀价的局面，其结果必然是自毁市场。<br /><br />在巴里克的年报上，系统性地误导了投资人。它吹嘘自己复杂的对冲策略，使其总能以高于市场的价格卖出黄金。其实，巴里克卖到市场上的黄金中，有相当部分就是通过金锭银行家向各国中央银行低息&ldquo;借来&rdquo;的黄金。它在市场上抛售这些&ldquo;借来&rdquo;的黄金，所得的收入用于购买美国财政部的债券。其中的利差收益，就是所谓的&ldquo;复杂的对冲工具&rdquo;所产生的奇妙效果的真正来源。这构成了典型的财务欺诈。<br /><br />　　在几个方面的合力之下，黄金价格不断下跌，这符合所有参加方的利益。黄金生产商由于早已锁定出售价格，在金价下跌时，他们账面上做空黄金的各类&ldquo;金融资产&rdquo;还会升值。于是，黄金生产商就奇怪地成为金价下跌的同谋者。其实，生产商得到的只是短暂的甜头，失去的却是长远的利益。<br /><br />　　黄金反垄断行动委员会主席比尔&middot;莫菲将这个蓄谋打击黄金价格的特殊利益集团称为&ldquo;黄金卡特尔&rdquo;，它的核心成员包括：J.P.摩根公司、英格兰银行、德意志银行、花旗银行、高盛公司、国际清算银行、美国财政部和美联储。<br /><br />　　当金价被强大的市场需求不断推高时，中央银行就会冲到第一线，公开抛售大量黄金，直到吓退投资者为止。<br /><br />　　格林斯潘在1998年7月的众议院银行委员会的听证会上宣称：&ldquo;黄金是另一种有大量金融衍生产品进行场外交易的商品，投资者无法控制黄金的供应量。如果黄金价格上涨，中央银行家们随时准备&lsquo;出租&rsquo;黄金储备，来增加供应量。&rdquo;换句话说，格林斯潘公开承认，如果有必要，黄金价格完全处于中央银行家们的控制之下。<br /><br />　　1999年3月科索沃战争爆发，情况发生了微妙的变化。北约的空袭迟迟未能奏效，黄金价格在强大购买力的支撑下，开始积蓄爆发力。金价一旦失控而持续走高，金锭银行家则必须从市场上高价买回黄金，归还给中央银行家们。如果市场上没有这样多的现货，或者当初以&ldquo;地下未来&rdquo;黄金产量做抵押的黄金生产商破产，又或许，地下根本没有足够的黄金，不仅国际银行家要承受巨大损失，中央银行家们的黄金储备账目也会出现巨大的亏空。<br /><br />如果事情败露，人民得知实情，只怕真的会有人上断头台。情急之下，英格兰银行终于在1999年5月7日冲到了第一线。如果能够吓退投资者，金价继续下跌，自然皆大欢喜；即便失手，索性将坏账的黄金卖出，到时候也死无对证。正所谓&ldquo;黄金坏账，一卖了之&rdquo;。这就是为什么中央银行家们出售黄金时，人们从来不知道谁是买主的原因。<br /><br />　　尽管科索沃战争在1999年6月10日结束，惊出一身冷汗的中央银行家们觉得玩得太过火了。再加上，国际黄金市场的投资者已经开始声称要告中央银行家们操纵黄金价格，各国政治家们也开始关注黄金价格问题，事情看来要闹大了。<br /><br />　　在这种情况下，1999年9月，欧洲的中央银行家们达成了&ldquo;华盛顿协议&rdquo;，限制各国在未来五年内出售或出租黄金的总量。消息传来，黄金&ldquo;租借&rdquo;利率在几个小时之内从1%跳升到9%。做空黄金的生产商和投机商的金融衍生产品损失惨重。<br /><br />　　黄金近20年的熊市终于画上了句号，它预示着商品市场大牛市的到来。<br /><br />　　1999年是黄金战场的重要战略转折点，其意义相当于二战中的&ldquo;斯大林格勒保卫战&rdquo;。从此以后，打压金价的企图，再也未能取得黄金战场的战略主动权。以美元为首的法币体系将在黄金的强大攻势面前不断败退，直至最终崩溃。<br /><br />　　在控制黄金价格的主战场之外，国际银行家还开辟了第二战场，那就是舆论战和学术战。国际银行家最成功之处，就在于系统性地对经济学界进行洗脑，将学术界的热点引导到与实际世界的经济运行严重脱节的数学公式游戏之中。当多数现代经济学家疑惑地问，黄金究竟有何用处的时候，国际银行家应该感到非常欣慰，一切尚在控制之下。<br /><br />　　人们自然会问，法币制度有何不好？我们不已经在法币体系下生活了30多年了吗？经济不照样在发展吗？<br /><br />　　原美联储纽约银行副总裁和花旗集团副总裁约翰&middot;埃克斯特的回答是：<br /><br />　　在这样一个系统之下，没有国家需要向另外一个国家支付真正保值的货币，因为它们没有兑换（金币）的纪律约束。我们可以用纸币去购买石油，不管我们印多少这样的纸币。他们（经济学家）选择忽视人民对一种能够储藏财富的坚实货币的渴望。事实上，他们拒绝承认黄金是货币，而武断地认定黄金只是一种普通商品，就像铅和锌一样，在货币系统中没有任何位置。<br /><br />他们甚至建议，财政部没有必要继续储存黄金，应该逐渐在市场上抛售。拿掉黄金之后，他们任意地定义纸币价值。他们不曾告诉我们，这种永远以神奇速度增加的&ldquo;IOU&rdquo;（我欠你）借条，如何能够实现货币保值的功能。他们似乎完全没有意识到，以这种神奇速度增发的纸币，有一天会造成债务问题。<br /><br />　　凯恩斯和弗里德曼只是20世纪的约翰&middot;劳的翻版。他们选择漠视纸币，兑换黄金这一铁律，而故意以某些经济学家或政治家的思维定式中的速度来印刷纸币。他们认为，这样就能够欺骗自然规律，无中生有地&ldquo;创造&rdquo;财富，消除商业周期，确保全民就业和永远繁荣。<br /><br />&nbsp; &nbsp;这意味着，某些经济学家为着特定政治倾向而制订政策，在不用他们自己的金钱在市场中冒险的前提下，以当年约翰&middot;劳一般的智慧，对经济事务无所不知，任意决定货币、财政、税收、贸易、价格、收入等政策，还告诉我们，这样对我们最好。于是他们就&ldquo;微调&rdquo;了我们的经济。<br /><br />　　当今大多数经济学家们都是凯恩斯的徒子徒孙培养出来的，包括那些诺贝尔奖的获得者，如著名的教材《经济学》的作者保罗&middot;萨缪尔森。他的教材里充满了数学公式和各种彩色图表。但是当读到他对黄金的观点时，才发现，他的看法几乎没有任何历史纵深，而显得非常肤浅。他是20世纪学术界的一个典型的例子，经济学家们完全忽略了对金钱历史的研究，或者是为了某些理由而选择故意忽略。<br /><br />　　萨缪尔森在他著名的对1968年以后的黄金价格双轨制的评论中说：<br /><br />　　在国际货币基金组织之外，黄金最终被完全去货币化了。它的价格完全由供需关系决定，就像铜、小麦、银或盐一样。<br /><br />　　一个中东的酋长，如果在55美元一盎司的价位上购买了黄金，而在68美元的价位上卖出的话，他一定能挣不少钱。但是，如果他是55美元买进，而38.5美元，甚至33美元抛出的话，他就会输掉身上的衬衫。<br /><br />　　萨缪尔森坚信，一旦黄金被踢出货币系统，那么，对黄金的需求就只限于很少的几种工业需求，如首饰业。所以，1971年8月15日，尼克松关闭黄金窗口、布雷顿体系垮台之后，黄金已不再是货币。谁还会需要黄金呢？到1973年，这位大教授发表这段宏论时，他认定1972年75美元一盎司的金价肯定维持不住，黄金最终可能跌到35美元以下。<br /><br />&nbsp; &nbsp;让教授下巴脱臼的是七年以后，黄金的价格冲到了850美元一盎司。<br /><br />　　还好，萨缪尔森不是华尔街的对冲基金经理，否则他输掉的就不仅仅是身上的衬衫了。<br /><br />书名：货币战争<br /><br />　　作者：宋鸿兵<br /><br />　　出版社：中信出版社<br />]]>
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<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1175310.html</guid>
<subject>笑月看世界</subject>
<author>duxiaoy123</author>
<category>笑月看世界</category>
<pubDate>Tue, 13 Nov 2007 22:44:14 CST </pubDate>
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<item>
<title>美国人开始舔盘子了，中国人应该怎么做？</title>
<link>http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1175302.html</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[美国人开始舔盘子了，中国人应该怎么做？<br /><br />世界经济的冬天<br /><br />熬过上世纪初美国股市泡沫破灭引起的经济大萧条，和世界大战的漫长寒冬后，世界经济迎来一个阳光明媚的春天。战后，百废俱兴，成千上万亿美元的重建投资让世界生机勃勃，人民早忘了大萧条时的失业恶梦，纵情享受人生，诞生了五十年代的婴儿潮。人口增长引发的消费狂潮让世界经济开始高烧。<br /><br />中国人有句哲语：&quot;月盈则亏。&quot;月圆时最明亮，但也是残缺的开始。当大家还沉醉在黄金十年时，美国的贸易逆差开始急剧扩大，美元大幅贬值。同时，以石油为代表的物价开始大幅上涨。世界范围内，一边是以美元计价的公司利润不断缩水，另一边是以美元计价的经营成本持续上涨，越来越多的公司陷入亏损甚至破产，。世界经济进入阴雨天，时间长达十年。<br /><br />八十年代美国总统里根上台，全国鼓吹&quot;星球大战&quot;计划，全国玩命投资高科技，其狂热让世界惊讶，甚至怀疑。<br /><br />十多年后，微软、英特尔、苹果这些成熟的果实宣告了电脑时代的到来。同时，再次证明美国是世界第一。<br /><br />随后，大家都看到了，世界经济长达十几年的持续繁荣。电脑奇迹完全改变了我们的生活方式，让偌大的地球成为了一个村，更创造了数不清的财富。这又是一个黄金十年，美国人民吃肉，世界人民喝汤。<br /><br />时间进入2000年后，科技进步的脚步变得沉重起来。接近十年时间，3G光纤到户等等，这些早已成熟。而可以再次推动产业升级，刺激经济发展的科技，因为国家间的竞争等原因，迟迟不能普及。反而，政客对抬高房价、减少教育投入之类，削减人民福利的事情，倒是万分的热衷。<br /><br />七年来，世界范围内房价的涨幅让人瞠目，&ldquo;居者有其屋&rdquo;，对许多人来说变成幻想。英国等富国开始考虑，甚至取消读大学免费的福利；剑桥女大学生去卖淫，难道是无缘无故？世界经济第二强国的日本，竟然出现缴不起保险，看不起病而自杀的病人。<br /><br />住房医疗教育，这些和日常生活息息相关的生活必需品，价格持续上涨，让人民陷入经济拮据的境地，更让&ldquo;科技进步，改善生活&rdquo;成为一句辛酸的笑话。以上海为例，2000年月收入3000元，在当地并不稀罕，但也不是满街跑，这样收入的人过得相当滋润。但到了2007年，月收入翻番到6000元的人已经很多，可谁还敢说自己牛B？房奴而已！<br /><br />这里，有一个很奇怪的现象。不管是中国这样统计方法还不&ldquo;完善&rdquo;的国家，还是欧美那样喜欢自我标榜老子制度天下第一的所谓&ldquo;西方&rdquo;国家，都没有把住房、教育、医疗等价格列入物价统计指数里！于是，有一个&ldquo;有趣&rdquo;的现象：从官方统计数据上看，全球范围内经济是不断增长的，物价是很低的，人民收入更是翻番的，整个一&ldquo;贞观之治&rdquo;！可TMD，老子没吸毒，老子的钱都上哪去了？<br /><br />随着那些故意没被统计进去的商品，它们的价格疯涨，人民渐渐变得贫穷起来。富足如美国人民，也开始舔起了盘子，其他国家则更不消说，可怜闻了点香味的中国人民居然还奢谈什么崛起！房奴的人数崛起，还差不多。<br /><br />人民缺钱花，只有拼命省。美国人为啥喜欢中国货？便宜！美国对中国，世界其他国家对中国，贸易逆差越来越大的根本原因之一就是因为世界人民都变穷了。有钱，谁买中国电器？日本液晶电视、德国西门子冰箱，不更好使？<br /><br />一边是物价越来越高，相应的，以普通人占多数的社会消费只得越来越低。另一边，公司赚钱越来越不容易，甚至开始亏损，大幅裁员的公司也越来越多。报纸上可以看到，因为物价高，崇尚自立的欧美年轻人，居然开始厚起脸皮来&ldquo;啃老&rdquo;了；通用、福特开始减少员工的医疗保险，甚至鼓励人们&ldquo;提前退休&rdquo;；BBC大幅裁员1800人；美国银行业亏损2800亿美元&hellip;&hellip;人民的荷包变得越来越瘪，剥削他们的资本家也不要再指望日进斗金了。经济规律，谁能违反？<br /><br />以世界为单位来统计，假如住房、教育、医疗价格的通货膨胀还在恶化，实际社会总消费降低，社会总投资看风向不对，也开始停滞。恶性循环的结果只有一个：经济衰退！世界经济已经开始进入晚秋，离寒冬不远了。<br /><br />知道寒冬要来，聪明人会马上甩掉单薄的夏衣，准备好御寒的小棉袄。<br /><br />面对泡沫，美国人利用证券市场，把垃圾房地产贷款卖给了世界各地的投资者，控制了银行的贷款风险，稳住了后院。同时，美国调整了货币政策，04年起连续加息，高达近百分之六的存款利率，对应的就是百分之八，甚至更高商业贷款利息。这么高的利息，以及背后经济调整的味道，让任何一家聪明的美国公司都会望而却步，收缩防守，那是明智之举。<br /><br />而迟钝的欧洲、中国，06年07年才开始大梦初醒的大幅加息。但这时，美国人早已经挤破了腿上的脓包，他们在07年2月份和9月份，连挤了两次房地产银行次级贷的脓包。事后，早已知道内幕的美国首富和二富得意洋洋的宣布，他们早就&ldquo;未卜先知&rdquo;的抛空了这部分垃圾投资。<br /><br />那些被迫喝下带脓血的、腿上还长着更多包的欧洲、中国的投资者们义愤填膺的指责美国的穆迪 - 一家负责评估行业风险的公司没有事先提醒这些风险。可笑！人家本来就是一伙的，合伙耍流氓，扒你的棉袄，还侠义心肠的通知你先？<br /><br />事后，欧洲的中国的投资者们纷纷表示自己的清白。比如，中国招商银行说，它在事发前就跑了；另一家银行说，它只投资了100亿美元，云云。一个人被摸了胸部，另一个人被扒了短裤，事后只轻描淡写，说走错了黑路。老流氓美国，眨眨眼，什么事没有！不偷笑，才是天怨人怒。<br /><br />大家都挤世界经济的公车，被流氓摸两把，也是没办法。想不吃亏，要么打的，要么也去当流氓。可惜，欧洲、中国一没能力，二没胆量。中国银行房贷的事情有多假，大家都知道。身边贷款买房的朋友，哪个能自己办下来，不用找中介？有哪个中介不作假？虚报收入最常见不过。<br /><br />可中国的银行控制过没有？中国股市这么火，政府完全可以把房地产贷款证券化，卖给那些削尖脑袋想进来的外国投资者。但是政府没有这么做，甚至没有利用股市的火暴，充实社保基金，让更多人享受到社保福利。<br /><br />经济泡沫并不完全是坏事，事物都有好坏两面。美国不是利用了互联网泡沫，发展、强化了自己在电脑经济的霸主地位么？泡沫的到来是无法避免的，这和季节变换一样，有冷就有热。在人民币升值引发的股市、地产泡沫里，完全可以通过税收和增加供给的方法，把财富增值的一部分转移到人民最需要的地方，比如还没普及的社保和医保。至于学美国发行次级贷，更是应该马上进行，可zf还没有行动。<br /><br />中国房贷危险的要命，欧洲也好不到哪里，偏偏大家好象都还无所谓？！人家摸你是他不对，自己摸自己，还凑上去让人摸，夫复何言？<br /><br />北风呼啸，美国的房价早开始下跌。随着美元有控制的贬值，美国出口也大幅增长，贸易赤字开始好转。控制着参众两院的民主党也许诺提高人民的医疗福利。面对危险，头脑清醒、身体健康点的，绝对要比那些腿上长包，屁股流脓的家伙们跑得快。<br /><br />看着美国人民的小棉袄，羡慕。<br />]]>
</description>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1175302.html</guid>
<subject>人文社会</subject>
<author>duxiaoy123</author>
<category>人文社会</category>
<pubDate>Tue, 13 Nov 2007 22:40:16 CST </pubDate>
</item>

<item>
<title>美文赏析</title>
<link>http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1175253.html</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[<p><span class="STYLE1"><strong><font color="#666666" size="3">金缕衣 杜秋娘</font></strong></span></p>
<p><span class="STYLE1"><font face="Verdana">乐府&nbsp;</font><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </font></span></p>
<p><span class="STYLE1"><font face="Verdana">劝君莫惜金缕衣， 劝君惜取少年时。<br />花开堪折直须折， 莫待无花空折枝。</font></span></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">THE GOLD-THREADED ROBE&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Du Qiuniang </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Covet not a gold-threaded robe,</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Cherish only your young days!</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">If a bud open, gather it --</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Lest you but wait for an empty bough</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><span class="STYLE1"><strong><font color="#666666" size="3">再别康桥 徐志摩</font></strong></span></font></p>
<font face="Verdana"><span class="STYLE1">
<p><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 轻轻的我走了，<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 　正如我轻轻的来；<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 我轻轻的招手，<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 　作别西天的云彩。</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 那河畔的金柳<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 　是夕阳中的新娘<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 波光里的艳影，<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 　在我的心头荡漾。</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 软泥上的青荇，<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 　油油的在水底招摇；<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 在康河的柔波里，<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 　我甘心做一条水草。</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 那树荫下的一潭，<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 　不是清泉，是天上虹<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 揉碎在浮藻间，<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 　沉淀着彩虹似的梦。</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 寻梦？撑一支长篙，<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 　向青草更青处漫溯，<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 满载一船星辉，<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 　在星辉斑斓里放歌</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 但我不能放歌，<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 　悄悄是别离的笙箫；<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 夏虫也为我沉默，<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 　沉默是今晚的康桥！</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 悄悄的我走了，<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 　正如我悄悄的来；<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 我挥一挥衣袖，<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 　不带走一片云彩。</font></p>
<p>Saying Good-bye to Cambridge Again </p>
<p>--by Xu Zhimo</p>
<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Very quietly I take my leave<br />　As quietly as I came here;<br />　Quietly I wave good-bye<br />　To the rosy clouds in the western sky.</p>
<p>　The golden willows by the riverside<br />　Are young brides in the setting sun;<br />　Their reflections on the shimmering waves<br />　Always linger in the depth of my heart.</p>
<p>　The floatingheart growing in the sludge<br />　Sways leisurely under the water;<br />　In the gentle waves of Cambridge<br />　I would be a water plant!</p>
<p>　That pool under the shade of elm trees<br />　Holds not water but the rainbow from the sky;<br />　Shattered to pieces among the duckweeds<br />　Is the sediment of a rainbow-like dream?</p>
<p>　To seek a dream? Just to pole a boat 　upstream<br />　To where the green grass is more verdant;<br />　Or to have the boat fully loaded with starlight<br />　And sing aloud in the splendour of starlight.</p>
<p>　But I cannot sing aloud<br />　Quietness is my farewell music;<br />　Even summer insects heep silence for me<br />　Silent is Cambridge tonight!</p>
<p>　Very quietly I take my leave<br />　As quietly as I came here;<br />　Gently I flick my sleeves<br />　Not even a wisp of cloud will I bring away</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
</span>
<p><span class="STYLE1"><strong><font color="#666666" size="3">枫桥夜泊 张继</font></strong></span></p>
<span class="STYLE1"></span>
<p><font face="Verdana">七言绝句&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">月落乌啼霜满天， 江枫渔火对愁眠。 <br />姑苏城外寒山寺， 夜半钟声到客船。</font></p>
<font face="Verdana">
<p><font face="Verdana">A NIGHT-MOORING NEAR MAPLE BRIDGE<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Zhang Ji</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">While I watch the moon go down, a crow caws through the frost; </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Under the shadows of maple-trees a fisherman moves with his torch; </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">And I hear, from beyond Suzhou, from the temple on Cold Mountain, </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Ringing for me, here in my boat, the midnight bell. <br /></font>
<p><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<font face="Verdana"><span class="STYLE1">
<p><font face="Verdana"><br />&nbsp;&nbsp; 威廉&middot;巴特勒&middot;叶芝 </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">万物衰老腐朽，万事破败荒凉， <br />路边孩童哀哀哭叫，路上马车嘎嘎作响； <br />农夫耕地脚步沉重，冬日泥土翻浪： <br />你的幻影遭到扭曲，那是一朵玫瑰在我心底绽放。 </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">世上的一切都被扭曲，这种扭曲难以言状； <br />我渴求重塑世界，让绿色围在我的身旁， <br />再造的天、地、山、水是黄金的宝盒， <br />把你在我梦中的幻影珍藏，那是一朵玫瑰在我心底绽放。</font></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
</span></font>
<p><font face="Verdana">The Lover tells of the Rose in his Heart </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">William Butler Yeats <br />&nbsp;<br />All things uncomely and broken, all things worn out and old, </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">The cry of a child by the roadway, the creak of a lumbering cart,</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">The heavy steps of the ploughman, splashing the wintry mould, </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Are wronging your image that blossoms a rose in the deeps of my heart. </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">The wrong of unshapely things is a wrong too great to be told; </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">I hunger to build them anew and sit on a green knoll apart, </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">With the earth and the sky and the water, re-made, like a casket of gold </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">For my dreams of your image that blossoms a rose in the deeps of my heart.</font><br /></p>
</p>
</font><font face="Verdana"> <span class="STYLE1"><strong><font color="#666666" size="3">心中的玫瑰</font></strong></span></font></font>]]>
</description>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1175253.html</guid>
<subject>专业知识</subject>
<author>duxiaoy123</author>
<category>专业知识</category>
<pubDate>Tue, 13 Nov 2007 22:07:56 CST </pubDate>
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