2008年的投资品种分析

市场大环境:国际形势
    美国次债危机,造就国外资金撤离.而人民币的升值,造就国外的资金进入中国.我们可以从香港的市民不断开户人民币业务,及还有相关外资数据.而资金的投向一向是低流进,需求高利润为主.从近一段的投资分析,国外的投资基本都是赔钱.如国内的基金出海外投资,只有半条命回来,看看出海的基金赔50%.机会在中国.

国内的动向:物价问题
     物价高起原因有二:其一,原料上涨.其二,购买力.原料上涨大家知道,不用说太多.购买力分外国人和中国人购买力.发展中国家,改革开放,吸引大量国外的资本进入.从而推动供需的变化.房市大家知道,外资一直想介入,就是冲赚钱为主(毛利率相当高).因为国外的房子跟我们的价值不一样.老外觉得还有利润.

国内股市:风险与机会
    中国股市的机会与风险分析:当前股指,在技术上进入3300-3500筑底区,中国石油进入筑底可能性加大,谢谢大家对其的支持和理解,我们相信2008的机会相当多,让我们携手并肩,共创财富的天堂.*******************************************************************************************保护内参价值＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊．

投资分析观点,仅供投行参考.未经同意不得转贴,请各自遵守规则.

                                                  内参绝密分析:九段研发中心2008年04月5日

中国股市六大因素分析:美国次债危机,通货膨胀,再融资问题,大小非解禁股.创业板,股指期货

美国次债危机:影响全球也会促进全球经济发展,热钱流动是高风险流向低风险的优质资本套利.次债危机,让美国的资本流出海外.海外的＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊

通货膨胀:又通称"美国式的次债危机".通货膨胀是物价水平普遍而持续的上升。通货原因两个:原料上涨及消费购买力的问题.首要是要看原料,从原料上面＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊

再融资问题:不合理的融资,不合理的投资项目是可以让投资的上市公司付出惨重代价.回往历史,＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊给大机构配销(好的项目一般的投资者买不到,利益集团问题).

大小非解禁股:根据上交所公布的数据表明,好的上市公司大小非解禁股＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊.(细得问题下面文章有提到)

创  业   板:前面有提到了,美国次债让资本流入中国资本,而中国这几年的经济发展造就＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊.而创业板的上市公司,对自主创新的技术含量相当高.也是高级资本投行的决逐.

股 指 期 货:从功能上看,股指期货具有发现价格,套利保值.规避风险.从这个层面的意思上看,一旦推行股指,个股分化相当大,低估的价值的股,自然就上升到一定度.没有价值的股,自然就下降到一定度.就是所谓价格发现.现在大家明白,为何我历史从来是以价值为主的导向问题.

谢谢大家对其的支持和理解,我们相信2008的机会相当多,让我们携手并肩,共创财富的天堂.

投资分析观点,仅供投行参考.未经同意不得转贴,请各自遵守规则.

                                                  内参绝密分析:九段研发中心2008年04月5日

２００６年11月30日九段看盘观点

　　经过９月的战略布局建仓，１０月还是以价投资为主，理性操作，稳中求胜．