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<title><![CDATA[逸风飞雪]]> </title>
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<![CDATA[风萧萧，雪漫漫。
朋友，请放缓脚步，听我弹奏一曲；
如能入耳，入座，我们小酌三杯；
如能投意，你我痛饮三百碗。
指点江山，激扬文字，
粪土当年万户侯，岂不快哉！

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<link>http://wlglm.blog.bokee.net/</link>
<language>zh-cn</language>
<creator>wlglm</creator>
<pubDate>Mon, 17 Jul 2006 10:16:39 GMT+08:00 </pubDate>
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<title>(转载)中国绝不能成为美元泄洪的重灾区</title>
<link>http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1480484.html</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[今天的中国是一个开放的国家，在开放的过程中我们获得了发展的机遇，同时我们也面临着新的风险。&nbsp;<br />在资本市场，我们面临的风险尤为突出。在一些领域，海外资本正逐步主导或者已经主导了中国的诸多产业部门，相对应的，中国国内生产和消费结构出现严重失衡，环境恶化，民生问题突出。而这一切的核心问题就是中美之间的汇率之战。<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;中美的汇率之战本质上是一场国与国之间的货币战争，是美国货币政策、双方的汇率政策、中国货币政策之间的较量。实行弱势美元政策、持续降息、推动人民币升值是美国在这场战争中的主要行为方式。这场金融攻势的目的是以温和的方式，逐步削弱中国经济，从而瓦解中国成为美国竞争对手的能力。<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;在这场货币政策的较量中，我国是选择被动地迎合美国开出来的政策清单，还是选择主动出击、保卫国家的经济安全和经济成果，这是关系到中国经济未来命运的问题，也是关系到中国的政治稳定和社会稳定的问题。中国的宏观经济决策机构必须从开放的、系统的角度重新评估目前的国际和国内经济形势，牢牢把握中国经济发展的主导权和主动权。<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;目前，中国位居世界第一的1.53万亿美元外汇储备已经成为美国的猎物。中国巨额的美元储备如同中国交易员在国际外汇市场上做了一笔大额的不当交易，让国际猎手们感到极度的兴奋，但是，我们还没有闻到捕杀的血腥。从人民币升值的那一天起，中国财富就开始了国际化的转移：从中国本土转移到海外，主要是美国。人民币加速升值的政策只是加速这种财富的国际转移，并没有解决中国面临的其它问题。<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;从美国利益的立场看，美联储降息、美元贬值、甚至宣称无限量地提供流动性是对美国民众和美国金融机构的最好保护，是完全正确的，体现出美国人高明而自私的金融智慧。但是，美联储的做法能否达到预期的目的，这需要中国中央银行制定并执行与美联储完全相反的货币政策给予充分的配合。事实上，中国央行对应的货币政策就是升息、人民币升值、紧缩货币。中国的货币政策在美元的攻势之下疲于奔命，完全丧失了货币主导权，但是，中国并没有在讨好美元的博弈中达到自身的目的。中美央行之间不同选择的结果是：美国通过持续降息、美元贬值甚至宣称无限量地提供垃圾美元，逐步摆脱了次级贷款危机，却维持了物价稳定，避免了通货膨胀；中国正好相反，中国央行采取持续加息、不断提高准备金率、加大人民币升值幅度、甚至采取窗口指导等行政手段来紧缩银根，逼得基层企业难以生存和发展，却仍然抑制不了物价上涨的趋势。面对通胀压力和严重的经济结构失衡，社会舆论和政府政策几乎一边倒地倾向于进一步提高存款准备金率、进一步加快人民币的升值，而根本不顾这一系列政策可能产生的严重后果，也不论证这一系列政策能否达到预期的目的。<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;今天，中国经济所处的国内外环境与二十年前大不相同，但是，经济理论界和经济管理部门对中国经济格局的判断、宏观调控的思路和手段还是停留在二十年前的水平上。如果沿用传统的思路和手段调控经济，不仅会事与愿违，而且代价惨重。采取加速人民币升值、提高存款准备金率、简单机械地加息等调控政策将会导致中国的宏观经济形势进一步恶化：<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;第一、&nbsp;加剧人民币升值的压力<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;当今的中国经济是一个过度开放的经济体，对外经济依存度很高，外汇储备超过1.53万亿美元，并且主要投资于美国国债市场。美元资本可以通过各种投资的方式不断流入中国。地方政府和国家部委出于本位主义，阻止美元资本流入的防线已经形同虚设，这是中国经济政策制定者必须面对的现实。这是二十年前不存在的情况。面对这样的国内经济现实，美联储一旦采用泛滥的美元政策，那么，中国的紧缩货币政策必然成为美元泄洪的重灾区。中国紧缩的货币政策意味着提高准备金率和加息，意味着减少人民币的投放数量，意味着人民币吸引力的提高，结果只能是美元更加汹涌地涌向境内，人民币被迫升值。<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;目前，国内外众多专家学者在呼吁政府加大人民币升值的幅度，希望2008年度人民币升值10％，同时进一步加息和提高存款准备金率，以便抑制国内的通货膨胀。这种政策组合事实上很可能制造经济灾难。<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;中国一年期活期存款利率已从3.87%上调到4.14%，如果人民币升值10％，海外热钱进入中国的无风险收益率高达14.14％，而美国减息之后的基准利率是3%，这是境外热钱的基本成本，海外资金的套利空间达到11.14％，对冲基金可以利用资金杠杆放大10倍以上进行投机，资金的年化收益率可以高达111.40％以上。巨大的利益诱惑导致海外热钱涌入中国。2007年度是人民币大幅升值的一年，却同时又是外汇储备同比大幅增加43％的一年。个别专家指出通过人民币升值来抑制热钱流入的政策，犯了抱薪救火的错误，已经得到验证。<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;第二、&nbsp;人民币升值的过程是酝酿潜在金融危机的过程<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;人民币升值幅度与人民币存款利息之和一旦大于美元资金成本，就意味着人民币升值的过度和存款加息的过度。人民币升值的直接损失不是出口商品减少、没有换到美元，而是中国的1.53万亿美元外汇储备像冰雪一样每天在融化、是国民财富在被弱势美元所蚕食。人民币升值意味着大量海外在华资产在完成增值之后可以换取更多的美元，可以在不久的将来轻易地兑换走国家的外汇储备，从而把中国依靠消耗资源和劳动力挣得的财富瞬间消失在人民币与美元的这场较量之中。这就是人民币升值的代价。<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;主张人民币快速升值的观点遗忘了中国有1.53万亿美元的外汇储备，也忽略了海外资本已经掌握了巨额的人民币资产，这些已经增值数倍的人民币资产需要在人民币升值之后更快地、更多地消耗掉中国外汇储备。中国经济对外依存度已经达到70％，这是一个极其危险的比例，它意味着在出现大规模兑换美元的紧急情况下，中国增加出口的能力十分有限。人民币的大幅度升值将把中国经济逼进没有回旋余地的死角，届时，金融危机的爆发、各类企业股权、债券贱卖给外资机构就成为必然的结局。其实，中国正在重复着发生过金融危机的国家和地区的初期道路。<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;与美国财长保尔森的观点相反，&ldquo;欧元之父&rdquo;罗伯特&middot;蒙代尔认为人民币快速升值是&ldquo;很糟糕的事情&rdquo;，他说：&ldquo;现在有人提出人民币应该快速升值，我认为不能这样做，中国可能面临人民币被高估的情况。如果人民币快速升值，那对中国来说是很糟糕的事情，人民币兑美元应稳定在7.5左右。&rdquo;（详见《&nbsp;蒙代尔:快速升值很糟糕&nbsp;人民币汇率应稳定在7.5》，《证券时报》2007年09月17日）&nbsp;<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;第三、&nbsp;人民币升值不仅不能抑制中国的通货膨胀，而且会使通货膨胀进一步恶化<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;根据西方经济学的教条，货币升值可以抑制出口、增加进口，从而可以抑制通货膨胀。但是，这个教条在今天的中国已经不适用，相反，人民币升值不仅不会抑制通货膨胀，反而成为推动通货膨胀的元凶。这是因为中国已经不是一个封闭的经济体，而是一个过度开放的经济体。中国当前的通货膨胀是发生在人民币持续升值之后，而不是发生在人民币升值之前。事实胜于雄辩。中国经济的现实可以推翻所有的经济学教条。西方经济学的教条只有在中国经济没有过度开放、或者美国没有制造美元泛滥的前提下才能成立。<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;本次中国通货膨胀的形成过程是：<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;第1阶段，海外资本大量进入中国并主导了对外出口，外商企业的出口额占中国总出口额的60％，同时，海外资本以低廉的价格购买了大量的国内企业股权，此时，逼迫人民币升值既有借口，又十分有利。<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;第2阶段，在美国的压力之下，人民币开始升值，并形成持续升值的预期，大量投机性热钱通过各种途径涌向中国房地产市场、企业股权市场和股票二级市场。<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;第3阶段，中央银行通过发行票据对冲美元，希望维持人民币升值的节奏。这种公开市场的对冲操作，本质上是把国内企业手中的人民币收上来交给了持有美元的海外机构，中国本土企业减少了这部分人民币所对应的发展机会，而以美元换取这部分人民币的海外机构取得了相应的投资机会。中国类似东盛集团这样的民营企业为什么不得不把&ldquo;盖天力&rdquo;&ldquo;白加黑&rdquo;这样的优质资产卖给外资？原因就在这里。换个角度看，这种对冲操作相当于中国人民银行把自己掌控的一部分权利转移给了美联储。这是一种货币发行权的转移。廉价美元初战告捷，尝到甜头，于是，美联储开足印钞机的马力，不辞昼夜，而中国央行收紧内资企业的银根、紧缩了内资企业的发展空间，而把收上来的人民币资金通过对冲的方式交给了美元持有者，让这些美元持有者在中国收购金融股权和产业股权、收购土地、金矿、煤矿、高速公路、自来水设施等等。<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;从2007年初到12月12日，央行全年共发行央票3.93万亿；扣除央行所作的回购交易，2003年至2007年，发行央行票据净对冲流动性约4万亿；截至2007年10月份，外汇占款已达到12.72万亿人民币，这意味着人民币升值10％，我方的汇兑损失就达到1.272万亿人民币。在这场对冲交易中，美联储通过发行美元扩大了自己的经济版图，把美元符号变成了实物资产和资源，同时坐拥人民币升值的收益，而人民币丢失了自己的经济版图，并把美元变成了美国国债，接受着持续的贬值。<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;第4阶段，美联储推行的减息、贬值、宣称提供无限流动性的美元政策没有导致美国出现通货膨胀，却制造了中国的通货膨胀。央行发行票据对冲美元的公开市场操作，本质上是把国内生产经营机构的资金搬运给了海外机构。由此，一方面造成国内生产经营单位营运资金紧张，民间拆借利率高达30％，另一方面海外机构持有充裕的人民币热钱，可以进行大举投资和收购，抬高了资源和产品的价格。中国金融体系中人民币资源配置的失衡既制造了有效供给不足的通货膨胀，又制造了成本推动型的通货膨胀。当前，中国的通货膨胀是这二种通货膨胀交叉作用的产物。美元泛滥、人民币升值、公开市场操作误配人民币资源是本次通货膨胀的根源。<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;人民币升值和紧缩货币政策将对中国经济产生巨大的伤害，却可以完美地配合美联储的宏观经济调控目标：继续维持弱势美元、维持低利率和低通胀、承诺提高无限流动性以便顺利度过次贷危机，同时，为未来实行强势美元政策、吸干中国的外汇储备而作准备。<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;截至2007年12月27日，央行总计回笼资金量达到6.94万亿元，其中，通过发行央票和正回购回笼资金5.14万亿元；十次上调存款准备金率回笼资金约1.8万亿元。对冲到期释放的资金量后，央行净回笼资金高达2.63万亿元，比去年增加了约1.38万亿元，相当于每天从市场回笼资金190亿元。在央行加强资金回笼力度的同时，外汇占款却迅猛增加，仅以三季度末的外汇储备量估算，今年新增外汇占款量将比去年多出一倍（《央行今年净回笼2.63万亿元》，详见《上海证券报》2007年12月28日）。<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;第四、人民币升值趋势和升值预期导致国内货币调控手段陷于极度被动的局面<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;在人民币升值趋势保持不变的情况下，如果降低利率、增加货币供给量，那么，会导致负利率的情况加剧，国内企业和居民的存款会受到更大的损失，通货膨胀将进一步恶化；相反，如果提高利率、减少货币供给量，那么，会导致海外热钱套利空间加大、内资企业的发展机会受到进一步挤压、给外资收购中国企业和国内资源提供更大的机会，中国经济拉美化趋势更加严重。采取后者的政策尽管可能暂时减轻通货膨胀压力，但是，通货膨胀会在未来伴随着金融危机以更加强烈的方式爆发出来。各国经济危机爆发的历史事实已经使上述结论成为常识。<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;第五、汇率和利率是主要的收入再分配工具，人民币加速升值将导致国内外收入分配格局的进一步失衡<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;在加速人民币升值的情况下，国内加息的空间是有限的，居民和企业的存款可能长期维持在负利率的水平上，使得存款者利益受到损失，从而促使部分存款离开银行形成现实购买力，增大通货膨胀压力。2007年度CPI达到4.8%，银行一年期定期存款利率是4.14%，活期存款利率是0.72%，居民和企业存款利率是－0.66％以上，以10月份38万亿存款余额计算，负利率使得存款者的损失在2500亿元以上。人民币兑美元是从2005年7月开始升值，此前，人民币汇率基本维持在8.27左右，之后开始一路升值，并显现加速之势，截止到1月底的中间价达到7.20，升值幅度为12.94%，中国的汇兑损失超过1500亿美元，相当于损失1.2万亿人民币，超过2006年全年中央财政收入2万亿人民币的一半以上。<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;如果2008年度人民币继续升值10％，中国近1.5万亿美元外汇储备相应地贬值1500亿美元，相当于国民财富再次损失1万多亿人民币。企业和居民的存款损失与外汇储备的汇兑损失之和在1.3-1.5亿人民币之间，相当于2006年度中央财政收入2万亿人民币的65-75％，也大幅超过了2007年度中央企业创造的利润的总和。上述二项损失的区别在于：负利率造成的存款损失属于国内财富的再分配，美元储备的贬值属于国民财富的国际再分配，属于国民财富流失。这将是我们推行以人民币升值为主的宏观紧缩政策的代价，同时，也将构成了美元输出国的重大利益来源。<br /><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;面对泛滥的美元，英国央行选择了抵抗，而不是迎合。英国11月份生产者指数产出价格较上年同期上升4.5%，为过去16年以来的最大升幅，PPI投入价格较上年同期上涨10.2%。英国银行没有采取紧缩政策、没有加息、没有为泛滥的美元提供纵深推进的货币空间和利益诱导，相反，英国央行选择了对抗，采取了与美联储相同的放松货币的政策，在12月6日下调基准利率25个基点，至5.50%，这是该行自2005年8月以来的首次降息（见《市场静待美国利率决定》上海建行冯威威，《新闻晨报》12月12日）。全球性通货膨胀的根源在于美国、在于美联储的垃圾美元政策，而不在于中国央行货币政策本身，因此，英国央行的操作思路值得我们借鉴和反思。（作者余云辉　经济学博士、厦门大学金融系客座教授]]>
</description>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1480484.html</guid>
<subject></subject>
<author>wlglm</author>
<category></category>
<pubDate>Sun, 02 Mar 2008 17:48:21 GMT+08:00 </pubDate>
</item>

<item>
<title>评房地产新政</title>
<link>http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1367591.html</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">如果说房贷新政的出台最终导致了拐点迹象并引发系列争论的话，那么，国务院严打囤积土地的措施，有可能产生出比房贷新政更大的威力。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2008</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">年的第一个月，中央亮出了底牌：房价必须压低。</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><br /></span><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　一，严打囤地规定中有一</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&ldquo;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">狠招</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&rdquo;&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><br /></span><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">1</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">7</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">日，国务院办公厅在下发的《国务院关于促进节约集约用地的通知》第六条规定：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&ldquo;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">土地闲置满两年、依法应当无偿收回的，坚决无偿收回，重新安排使用；不符合法定收回条件的，也应采取改变用途、等价置换、安排临时使用、纳入政府储备等途径及时处置、充分利用。土地闲置满一年不满两年的，按出让或划拨土地价款的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">20%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">征收土地闲置费。</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&rdquo;&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><br /></span><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　从表面上来看，这些规定只不过是在重复过去的规定</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&mdash;&mdash;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">我国早在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">1994</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">7</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">月公布的《城市房地产管理法》就曾如此规定。但是，如果仔细看，就会发现此次与以往存在着极为明显的区别。</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><br /></span><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　最大的不同之处在于，第六条规定后面那句话：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&ldquo;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">对闲置土地特别是闲置房地产用地要征缴增值地价，国土资源部要会同有关部门抓紧研究制订具体办法。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&rdquo;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">这意味什么？意味着今后闲置土地的增值地价将被政府</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&ldquo;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">征缴</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&rdquo;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">，意味着开发商通过囤积土地来坐享土地升值之利的行为，不仅面临着巨大的法律风险，还面临着经济风险</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&mdash;&mdash;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">可能竹篮子打水一场空，替政府做嫁衣。</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><br /></span><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　当然，《国务院关于促进节约集约用地的通知》中，没有规定如果闲置的土地贬值了怎么办，这其实一点都不难理解，根据</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&ldquo;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">惯例</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&rdquo;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">推理就是：贬值了算囤积土地者倒霉，升值了被政府</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&ldquo;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">征缴</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&rdquo;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">。要知道，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&ldquo;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">研究制订具体办法</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&rdquo;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">的部门是国土资源部，无论站在部门利益角度来看还是站在执行国务院政策的力度方面来看，国土资源部都没有理由在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&ldquo;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">征缴征缴增值地价</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&rdquo;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">问题上表现出非常仁慈的一面。</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><br /></span><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　而且，与以往的通知不同，国务院的通知中去掉了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&ldquo;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">原则上</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&rdquo;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">三个字，使制度变得更为刚性，也流露出决策层的决心。</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><br /></span><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　从时间上来看，《国务院关于促进节约集约用地的通知》是在房贷新政实施以后，在房地产市场成交低迷，房价走势面临着巨大内在调整冲动的情况下出台的，有着明显的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&ldquo;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">再加把力</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&rdquo;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">的意味，这透露出来的信息非常明确：中央面对的不是拐点会否出现的问题，而是必须促使拐点乃至极点出现的问题。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana"><font size="3">二，中央需要拐点乃至极点</font></span><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana"><font size="3">　　在这里顺便提一下拐点和极点的区别。经济学上的拐点仅仅标志着上升或下降的形式发生了变化，是在大方向不变情况下具体形态的变化，比如从大涨到小涨、从暴跌到缓跌叫拐点。而极点则是真正意义上的转折，是大方向的改变，即由上涨转为下跌、或者由下跌转为上涨。</font></span><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana"><font size="3">　　那么，中央为何力促房市拐点甚至极点的出现呢？</font></span><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana"><font size="3">　　第一，在北京、上海等大城市，最近几年的房价涨幅已经翻倍，买不起房而又不能享受住房保障政策的人越来越多，如此庞大的人群在住房问题上被边缘化，在任何国家都是非常危险的事情。另一方面，各级政府落实住房保障政策的力度不大，解决的住房困难户有限，远远赶不上由于房价快速上涨所导致的新增住房困难群体。这种局面显然与中央解决民生问题的目标背道而驰。</font></span><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><br /></span><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　第二，金融风险正逐渐到达一个临界点。我国</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">80%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">左右的土地购置和房地产开发资金，是直接或者间接地来自银行贷款，而个人通过按揭贷款买房的人，占全部购房总数的比例高达</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">90</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">％，这意味着房地产市场的绝大部分风险都系在金融机构身上。按照国际经验，个人房贷的风险暴露期通常为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">3</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">年至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">8</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">年，我国个人房贷恰好已经逐渐步入风险暴露期。而银行对于抵押物的估值很容易出现较大偏差，甚至被人利用为套取银行资金的工具。在房价已经远远超过居民实际购买力水平的情况下，房价继续快速上涨必然累积泡沫，一旦爆发后果不堪设想。因此，央行采取严厉措施收紧房贷，不仅是调控房市的需要，也是其自身规避风险、防范风险的需要。而中央先后采取的房贷新政与严厉打击囤积土地行为，目的就在于挤压高房价中的水分，以保持房地产市场的健康发展和我国经济的可持续发展。</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><br /></span><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　第三，因建筑质量低劣和规划短视造成的建筑浪费，需要通过拐点或极点的出现来矫正。买涨不买跌的心理是普遍存在的，当房价处于快速上升轨道内，包括投机者、自住需求者在内的购房者就会蜂拥而入，而当需求骤然释放时，供应者为了获取更多利润就会通过囤积土地和捂盘惜售等办法来人为减少供应。在两者的共同挤压下，供不应求的效应被制造出来并被一步步强化，在这种情况下，开发商没有任何提高房屋建设质量的动力。这是我国住房平均寿命仅</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">30</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">年左右的根本原因。重复建设的结果，是让我国成为世界上最大的建筑浪费国。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana"><font size="3">三，严打囤积对房价走势的影响</font></span><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana"><font size="3">　　那么，此次《国务院关于促进节约集约用地的通知》将会房价走势产生怎样的影响呢？</font></span><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana"><font size="3">　　我们知道，我国房价之所以持续快速上涨，其中一个很大的因素在于投机，在于人为因素导致的有效供给严重不足。市场供应的充足与否直接决定着某种商品的稀缺程度，相应的，也决定着其价格的走势。如果某种商品由于种种人为原因出现有效供给不足，就会导致出供不应求（哪怕仅是假象），从而，不断推动价格上涨，导致商品价格与实际价值的严重脱节。我国的房价正是如此。</font></span><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><br /></span><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　我国住房的有效供给不足并非源于投资不足的原因。恰恰相反，我国房价是在我国投资最火热的阶段保持持续快速上涨状态的。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2006</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">年，我国房地产开发投资为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">1.94</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">万亿元，占当年全社会固定资产投资的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">17.6</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">％，占当年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">GDP</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">9.26</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">％，远远高于国际公认的房地产开发投资占</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">GDP</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">比重</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">5</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">％的合理水平。具体到地方，房地产投资增长更为迅猛。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2003</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">年－</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2005</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">年，北京市的房地产开发投资占固定资产投资比重连续</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">3</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">年都超过</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">53</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">％，位列全国第一。当然，北京房价的表现也同样是名列前茅。</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana"><font size="3">　　正常情况下，高速投资将增加供给，而供给的增加只要不低于需求太多，房价就难以保持快速上涨状态。问题到底出在哪里？其中一个极其重要的原因就在于大量土地被开发商等既得利益集团囤积起来，导致商品房建设进度缓慢，难以形成足量的有效供应。</font></span><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><br /></span><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　有三份报告为证：其一，建行发布的研究报告指出：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2001</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">年初至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2007</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">5</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">月份，房地产开发商累计购置土地面积</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">21.62</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">亿平方米，但实际仅开发完成</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">12.96</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">亿平方米，不足购置面积</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">60%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">，相当数量的土地被囤积和倒卖；其二，国务院发展研究中心于</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2007</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">9</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">16</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">日发布的《中国房地产企业竞争力研究报告》披露，房地产企业土地购置面积越来越大，全国最大的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&ldquo;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">地主</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&rdquo;</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">是碧桂园，截至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2007</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">7</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">月末，总土地储备量已经达到了惊人的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">4500</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">万平方米；北京师范大学金融研究中心撰写的《中国房地产土地囤积及资金沉淀评估报告》估测，到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2007</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">年底，房地产开发商囤地约</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">10</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">亿平方米。</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana"><font size="3">　　这些数据都在揭开同一个谜底，即大量投资集中在囤积土地环节，坐享土地升值之利，而没有形成有效供给。</font></span><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana"><font size="3">　　当然，在囤积土地后面，还跟着一个囤积住房的因素，问题在于，倘若不是开发商大肆囤积土地造成有效供给的减少，投机者敢孤注一掷囤积房源吗？正是非常普遍的土地囤积现象滋生出来的供不应求信息，给人们造成了房价将持续上涨的预期，才加剧了投机热。经济学家卢卡斯认为，公众对未来良好预期容易转化为现实的需求，从而进入消费决策。因此，从根源上来看，土地囤积行为实际上正是导致部分潜在购买力直接转化为消费行动，进而推动房价上涨的驱动力。</font></span><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana"><font size="3">　　如果说，房贷新政是从资金流上给炒房者釜底抽薪导致拐点迹象出现的话，那么，国务院严厉打击囤积土地的行为倘若被不折不扣的执行，无疑将直接增加住房的有效供应，从而改变炒房者对未来房价一定上涨的预期。仅此一条，就足以产生出比房贷新政强大得多的威力。果真如此，那么，人们下一步要争论的将不再是拐点是否出现、何时出现的问题，而是极点何时出现的问题。</font></span><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　</span></font><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><br /></span><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">　　打击囤积土地实际上意味着，中央的底牌已经亮出，房价必须压低。当然，到底能否压低房价，最终一切都取决于政府的决心和有关部门的效率及对政策的执行力度。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p>
<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">有感于次级债风波</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">两条线：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">第一条线</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">美国房价过高</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">--&gt;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">次级债风波</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">--&gt;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">黑山股价下跌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">--&gt;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">中投公司投资亏损</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">--&gt;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">外汇</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&ldquo;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">走出去</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&rdquo;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">战略搁浅</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">--&gt;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">加大国内调控</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">--&gt;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">遏制经济过热</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">--&gt;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">减少固定资产投入</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">--&gt;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">影响楼市</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">第二条线</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">次级债风波</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">--&gt;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">警示中国高层</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">--&gt;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">从紧货币政策</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">--&gt;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">控制信贷规模</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">--&gt;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">影响楼市</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">第三条线</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br />08</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">股市震荡</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">--&gt;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">散户赚钱困难</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">--&gt;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">房子购买力下降</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">--</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">影响楼市</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br /><br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">总线：上面政策调控，左面银行追索，右面买者捂钱</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">--&gt;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">开发商唯一出口：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&ldquo;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">下面</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&rdquo;<br /><br />---</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">危机重重</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">在我们迈入</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">2008</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">年之际，美国次贷危机的阴影依然浓重。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&nbsp;<br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">当次级贷款危机出现了扩散和延伸的趋势时，靠美联储与其它国家中央银行注资尚不足以迅速摆脱危机。亏损的资产价值十分巨大，房屋市场的低迷还在继续，房价还在下跌，这就使得次级贷款的危机在短期内难以真正见底。因为随着房价不断继续下跌，贷款购房者的还款能力就越低，坏账就越积越多，以贷款的还款为现金流作支持的证券价格就要继续下跌，危机就将延续。这也就是很多人预测次贷危机要到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">2009</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">年才会见底的原因。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br />---</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">政策调控</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">第一，从紧的货币政策，控制信贷规模</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">信用的过度扩张必然引发信用危机，这一条马克思曾经深刻分析过的原理至今仍然有效。不能指望过多的货币供应永远留在金融资产上。资产膨胀所带来的财富效应最终会使通货膨胀也跟随出现。而货币政策针对通货膨胀所提出的反制手段，往往又成为引发危机的导火索。因此货币政策的调节既要关注通货膨胀，也要关注信贷扩张的规模和资产价格走势，要在资产价格泡沫初期就能够提早采取措施抑制信贷过度扩张和资产泡沫的生成。格林斯潘不久前在《华尔街日报》发表文章说美国次贷危机是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&ldquo;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">迟早要发生的事</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&rdquo;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">，这是为其主掌美联储期间没有能控制信贷过度扩张和房地产泡沫推卸责任。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">因此，中央经济工作会议明确决定</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">2008</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">年我国将采取从紧的货币政策，而控制信贷规模则对靠资金烧起来的楼市来说是当头泼了一盆冷水。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">第二，温水煮青蛙，刺破资产泡沫</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">当通货膨胀已经出现，资产泡沫也已明显存在时，当前我国经济已经处于高位运行状态，各种敏感的经济数据都已经发出经济过热的警报，而作为固定资产投入的房地产业，首当其冲面临着调整。估计我国不会复制美联储连续</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">17</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">次调高利率的做法，而倾向于采用温水煮青蛙的方式，将股市，楼市等经济领域的泡沫慢慢蒸干。而采用此种方式，对于股市来说是个福，至少广大散户有足够时间来出逃。而对于楼市就不那么乐观了。楼市最怕漫长的调整，因为目前的房地产开发商，与其说是开发商，不妨称呼其为投机商，大都采用全仓操作，甚至负资产操作的模式。一旦在资金链上遭遇牵制，无异于毒蛇被采住了七寸，因为目前在国家控制信贷，买房者观望的双面夹击之下，很多开发商有如坐针毡的感觉，而余杭的广厦天都城的失败是个再好不过的例子。而著名的例子是万科董事局主席王石，为避免遭遇因长期政策调控造成资金链问题，竭力促成房地产行业的迅速洗牌，公开发表演说，承认楼市已到拐点，并带头降价售楼。这样做目的有两个。第一，讨好政府，避免过于严厉的政策调控。第二，打压其他开发商，借机吞并收购遭遇资金瓶颈的开发商。这样的做法，是很老道的。因为对于万科这样的地产大鳄，即使损失了暴利，也可以在未来承揽规模巨大的廉租房，经济适用房等等政府项目，可以衣食无忧。万科唯一目的是不想被温水煮青蛙，同其他大青蛙，小青蛙，甚至烂蛤蟆一起死在这锅次级债的臭水里。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">第三，外忧内患</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&nbsp;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">打击投机</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">在经济全球化大背景下，中国政府越来越感觉到中国经济无法做到在世界经济浪潮中独善其身。而聪明的做法就是参股国际公司，实现你中有我的境界，来提升中国经济抵御世界性金融危机的能力。同时，在过高的外汇储备，在控制出口等措施收效甚微，人民币升值过快的情况下。中国国家外汇投资公司以</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">30</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">亿美元入股黑山石油，而黑山股价因受次级债风波影响，股价从</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">35</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">美元每股狂跌至目前的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">21</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">美元每股，导致中投的这笔投资浮亏</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">8</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">亿美元以上，相当于杭州</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">2006</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">GDP</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">20&permil;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">。此番投机，在目前来说是偷鸡不成蚀把米。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">在外汇储备</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&ldquo;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">走出去</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&rdquo;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">的战略遭遇沼泽地的情况下。国家不得不打击国内投机。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">而疯狂的股市，楼市是打击重点。虽然央行有刚上任的副行长为俘获部分人的心表示央行的经济调控措施不针对房地产行业。这是一种极为圆滑的措辞，就像小朋友玩游戏，打了别人一巴掌，还故意装作不知道。无论如何，国家高层已经把遏制经济过热作为中央经济工作的首要任务，而作为造成经济过热的固定资产投入的房地产行业，首当其冲面临调控。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br />---</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">冰火两重天</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">与</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">2007</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">上半年热火朝天的杭州楼市相比，下半年对于楼市来说是个冰冷的冬天。很多中介门面关门了事，很多楼盘销售展示中心铁将军把门。与其说是开发商捂盘，不如说是买房人捂钱。在政策调控未明朗之前，没有人会掏腰包给房产商。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">2008</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">中国股市的赚钱效应会明显弱化，一定程度上也削弱的房产购买力。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">而刚在前不久，在杭的一些高价竞得土地的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&ldquo;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">地王</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&rdquo;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">在目前恶劣的发展趋势下，怕自己的房产</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&ldquo;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">帝国</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&rdquo;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">遭遇滑铁卢，纠集在杭的一些开发商搞</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&ldquo;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">万象之夜</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&rdquo;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">大型宣传活动，邀请所谓的高端人士出席，并大放厥词</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&ldquo;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">万象城不是杭州房价唯一推动者</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&rdquo;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">，并称该楼盘是面对高端客户的，因此没有理由降价。然而高端市场真有那么多量吗？显然答案是否定的，有像万象城本身这么多量就不叫高端市场了。何况，对杭州楼市影响最大的第二套房贷政策，已经使所谓的高端市场雪上加霜。万象城的神话没有出版即遭扼杀。而万象城的开发商华润谋求自保的唯一途径就是顺应国家政策，主动降价售房，以此来解决资金链问题，不然将步广厦天都后尘，前师之鉴！</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">国家此番调控，将维持两年以上，这对于以活动资金链为第一生命力的房产开发商来说确实是一个致命打击。因为一旦资金回笼出现紧张状况，银行加大信贷追索力度，那时房地产开发商将面临三面夹击：上面政策，左边银行追索，右边买房人捂钱，那么出口只有一个：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&ldquo;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">下面</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&rdquo;</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">！</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"><br /></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">所以请买房人一定要捂紧口袋，相信八十年代的春天会在半年后出现。</span>]]>
</description>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1367591.html</guid>
<subject></subject>
<author>wlglm</author>
<category></category>
<pubDate>Fri, 18 Jan 2008 17:25:37 GMT+08:00 </pubDate>
</item>

<item>
<title>招聘房地产投资副经理</title>
<link>http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1182827.html</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font size="3">岗位：投资发展部副经理</font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font size="3">岗位要求及职责：</font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font size="3">要求：</font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><span style="mso-list: Ignore"><font face="Times New Roman"><font size="3">1．</font><span style="FONT: 7pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;">&nbsp; </span></font></span></span><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">房地产管理、经济金融等相关专业，本科以上学历，年龄</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">40</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">岁左右。</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><span style="mso-list: Ignore"><font face="Times New Roman"><font size="3">2．</font><span style="FONT: 7pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;">&nbsp; </span></font></span></span><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">具有</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年以上的房地产从业经历，熟悉房地产项目投资分析，房地产项目开发流程，熟知相关政策法规，了解本区域房地产市场情况。</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><span style="mso-list: Ignore"><font face="Times New Roman"><font size="3">3．</font><span style="FONT: 7pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;">&nbsp; </span></font></span></span><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">具有</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">3</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年以上独立从事房地产项目投资分析或房地产项目评估工作经验。</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><span style="mso-list: Ignore"><font face="Times New Roman"><font size="3">4．</font><span style="FONT: 7pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;">&nbsp; </span></font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font size="3">具有投资项目的研判能力，有较高的政策及法律水平，熟悉投资管理、宏观与区域经济分析、财务分析等。</font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><span style="mso-list: Ignore"><font face="Times New Roman"><font size="3">5．</font><span style="FONT: 7pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;">&nbsp; </span></font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font size="3">工作勤奋，具有较强的团队协作意识和管理协调能力、执行能力。</font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font size="3">职责：</font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><span style="mso-list: Ignore"><font face="Times New Roman"><font size="3">1．</font><span style="FONT: 7pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;">&nbsp; </span></font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font size="3">协助房地产市场的政策和市场研究，为公司的投资方向提供建议，协助组织制定公司投资发展规划，根据公司的发展战略，制定公司土地储备和土地开发计划。</font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><span style="mso-list: Ignore"><font face="Times New Roman"><font size="3">2．</font><span style="FONT: 7pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;">&nbsp; </span></font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font size="3">负责新项目信息提报、初步洽谈、前期投资分析、土地价值研判、市场研判、谈判跟进等专业协助工作。</font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><span style="mso-list: Ignore"><font face="Times New Roman"><font size="3">3．</font><span style="FONT: 7pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;">&nbsp; </span></font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><font size="3">编写项目可行性研究报告。</font></span></p>
<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">4.&nbsp; 组织项目的前期开发。</span>]]>
</description>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1182827.html</guid>
<subject></subject>
<author>wlglm</author>
<category></category>
<pubDate>Fri, 16 Nov 2007 16:40:24 GMT+08:00 </pubDate>
</item>

<item>
<title>Домой </title>
<link>http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1067743.html</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[<span id="lblLyric">Мне как всегда везет &ndash;<br />Мой поезд ушел вперед,<br />Я оста-, я остался один.<br />Плакать &ndash; лишний труд,<br />Странный вокзальный люд<br />До утра будет ждать в суматохе дорожных картин.<br /><br />А я дойду, дойду, дойду, дойду,<br />Да по осенним лужам и по льду,<br />Да по камням домой, домой, домой,<br />Я дойду домой, дойду, дойду домой,<br />Дойду, дойду домой, дойду, дойду домой,<br />Домой, домой, домой, домой.<br /><br />А поезд вёз багаж &ndash;<br />Прожитых лет тираж<br />Я терял, но себя не менял.<br />Вкруг иль по прямой,<br />Лишь бы домой, домой,<br />Ты поймешь, если ночь скажет<br />Всё про меня, про меня.<br /><br />А я дойду, дойду, дойду, дойду,<br />Да по осенним лужам и по льду,<br />Да по камням домой, домой, домой,<br />Я дойду домой, дойду, дойду домой,<br />Дойду, дойду домой, дойду, дойду домой,<br />Домой, домой, домой, домой.</span>]]>
</description>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1067743.html</guid>
<subject></subject>
<author>wlglm</author>
<category></category>
<pubDate>Mon, 01 Oct 2007 23:27:04 GMT+08:00 </pubDate>
</item>

<item>
<title>Любэ</title>
<link>http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1067676.html</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[<p>Любэ/Lube/柳拜（音译），俄罗斯的流行-民谣-摇滚乐队，被誉为是二十世纪九十年代以来俄罗斯最杰出、最伟大的乐队。由于其对国家在文化和艺术领域及对巩固民族之间的团结友谊所作出的杰出贡献，乐队主唱拉斯托尔古耶夫&middot;尼古拉被俄罗斯联邦总统授予俄罗斯联邦功勋演员称号一位著名的导演这样评价柳拜：&ldquo;他们的音乐不是传唱一天两天的流行小调，而实际上已经变成了俄罗斯民歌，是可以永远传唱下去。<br />　　Любэ对于俄罗斯的贡献就像披头士(&quot;The Beatles&quot;)对于英国的贡献一样。&rdquo;<br /><br />　　1989年，作曲家伊戈尔．马特维延科遇见了无名歌手尼古拉&middot;拉斯托尔古耶夫 和阿纳托利&middot;库列绍夫，并非常欣赏尼古拉&middot;拉斯托尔古耶夫的声音，于是两个人一拍即合，1989年1月14日乐队成立了，正是在这一天乐队的处女作&quot; 柳别尔齐&quot; 和&quot; 巴季卡&middot;马赫诺&quot; 也问世了。与此同时他们的首张专辑 &quot;Атас/危险&quot; ( 1991)，也开始录制，其中共收录了14首歌曲。柳拜这个名字是乐队主唱尼古拉&middot;拉斯托尔古耶夫为组合想出的一个词，&ldquo;Любэ&ldquo;用乌克兰语解释就是&ldquo; 任何一个人，每一个人&quot; 的意思，尼古拉&middot;拉斯托尔古耶夫希望，每一位听者可以按照自己的想象来解释这个名称。<br /><br />　　柳拜的创作思想在于，他们要关注的不仅是一代俄罗斯人的精神财富需求，他们要歌唱祖国，歌唱爱国主义情感和对国家的责任感，歌唱普通人最珍贵的心灵，还有少年时代的朋友、初恋．．．，成立至今他们从不屈服于时髦的种种潮流，尤其在商业腐蚀一切的时代，他们依然为自己的理念，为他们的人民，为和平祈求着、奋斗着、歌唱着。 乐队的歌虽然充满了怀旧和爱国的情绪，但是并不象我们想象中的爱国歌曲沉重而又乏味。他们用最动听的音乐来表达他们的爱国之情，这种出自内心世界的音乐最能打动听众。<br /><br />　　在音乐上，这支乐队也与众不同，这与其音乐背景不无关系。乐队的曲子是由他们的领导者，作曲家兼制作人伊戈尔&middot;马特维延科完成，而所有歌词均来自于年轻诗人的创作，众所周知，俄罗斯人对诗的领悟是很有渊源的-----因而他们音乐中的文化底蕴是其他人所不可比拟的。<br /><br />　　他们音乐多数旋律简洁而又上口，歌声真实、自然、亲切，而且俄罗斯民族风情浓郁，无论是流行、摇滚还是民谣风格都不失俄罗斯民族音乐基调。不管从旋律，编曲、配器，歌词，和声，演唱诸多方面来欣赏，还是对生活、生命的理解和感悟，&ldquo;Любэ /柳拜的音乐都达到了一个高峰，是当今许多欧美知名乐队也难以比拟的。<br /><br />　　1988-1989年，在俄罗斯正是&rdquo;温暖五月&ldquo;和&rdquo;幻影&ldquo;等组合最红火的时候，当时的组合基本上都在完全模仿西方迪斯科音乐，人们没有预料到会有&quot;Любэ&quot;这样的组合出现，凭借他们与众不同的音乐内涵和风格以及英勇豪气的壮汉形象，迅速地走进了明星的行列，赢得了俄罗斯听众的普遍欢迎。从1990年起,&ldquo;Любэ /柳拜&rdquo;的歌曲开始在俄罗斯的各大歌曲排行榜上占据领先地位。<br /><br />　　1996年尼古拉。拉斯托尔古耶夫同苏联人民演员柳德米拉． 济金娜合作演唱了一首歌曲&rdquo;和我谈谈吧&ldquo;成为乐队创作中的一个新的阶段。当时正值车臣战争时期， 车臣战争影响的不是一个俄罗斯家庭，由于当时政府指挥不当等因素, 造成许多年轻的士兵在战争中被夺去生命. 人民被笼罩在痛苦和悲伤之中。于是&ldquo;Любэ /柳拜&rdquo;于1996年2月23日推出了一首单曲&rdquo;营长&ldquo;，原本这首来自于同名专辑的歌曲其实是在车臣这个悲惨事件发生之前完成的，用于献给卫国战争的老兵的，而战争如今却变成了现实。歌曲既有对过去的怀念, 又有对现状的讽刺, 更多的则是对祖国和亲人家乡的热爱。它意义不仅在于纪念卫国战争的胜利, 抚慰战争带来的心灵创伤, 同时也让人们在某种程度上体会到祖国的美好之处。由于歌曲所具有的现实意义和Любэ /柳拜&rdquo;精彩的演绎，歌曲&rdquo;营长&ldquo;占据了各大排行榜榜首位置并迅速在国内传开，几乎成为俄罗斯1996年年歌。&ldquo;Любэ /柳拜乐队也由此更加受到人们的尊敬和喜爱。<br /><br />　　截止2005年&ldquo;Любэ /柳拜&rdquo;共出版了15张专集和精选集（据初步统计），《atas》是乐队的第一张专辑，里面尽情的讽刺了经济改革的失败，使人们深深地怀念起以前那些平静而又舒坦的日子。<br /><br />1997年的专辑《Песни о людях》/《人之歌》/《song of the people》被认为是lube最好的一张专辑。专辑里面的歌非常动听，特别是&ldquo;Taм за туманами&rdquo;/&ldquo; 在雾后面的地方&rdquo;/ 《there after the mists》耐人寻味。<br /><br />　　2002年的《Давай за... 》/《来吧 为了....》/《davai za》专辑中的同名歌曲&ldquo;来吧 为了...&rdquo;是一首备受歌迷喜爱的歌曲，被歌迷称为是一首无可挑剔<br />的经典之作。<br /><br />　　 2005年是乐队具有纪念意义的一年，这一年乐队成立满15周年，为此柳拜推出了15周年纪念专辑《РАССЕЯ》，主唱介绍说，叫这个名字是因为我们生活在一个叫俄罗斯（Россия）的国家里，我们爱自己的国家。11歌曲基本上是新创作的歌，作曲家伊戈尔&middot;马特维延科担任音乐， 诗人亚历山大&middot;沙加诺夫和米哈伊尔&middot;安德烈耶夫，帕维尔&middot;然古恩作词，热情欢快的&ldquo;从伏尔加到叶尼塞河&rdquo;、民谣摇滚风格的&ldquo;俄罗斯&rdquo; 、多声部重唱抒情感人的&ldquo;明亮的索科尔&rdquo;、雄壮有力配以摇滚节奏的&ldquo;俄罗斯国歌&rdquo;，很好地诠释了柳拜这张纪念专辑的爱国主义主题。<br /><br />有人这样描述：<br /><br />面对曾经死铁一块的过去，<br />Любэ/Lube/柳拜纵情歌唱，<br />长相非常豪气的几个壮汉每每参加演出时，<br />总是一身戎装，<br />他们在冰冷的黑土上歌唱，<br />那曾经是热的，热的那样的疯狂，<br />无比哀伤的吉它让人心碎同时却又饱含激情，<br />苦楚之余，柳拜留给了我们无限宽广的希望&hellip;&hellip;<br /><br />　　这就是柳拜，一支伟大的俄罗斯乐队，聆听他们的音乐可以给你带来久违了的感动！<br /><br /><br />1989--2005年柳拜出版唱片列表：<br /><br />１、Атас 1992年<br />2、Кто сказал, что мы плохо жили 1993年<br />3、Комбат 1996年<br />4、Зона Любэ 1996年<br />5、Четыре ночи в Мoскве 1996年<br />6、Песни о людях 1997年<br />7、Собрание сочинений. 1989-1997 <br />8、 Песни из концертной программы &quot;Песни о людях&quot; (1998) <br />9、Полустаночки 2000年<br />10、Давай за... 2002年<br />11、Любэ. Юбилей. 2002年 <br />12、Военные песни 2003年<br />13、Ребята нашего полка 2004 年<br />14、Штрафбат - Сборник aрмеийских песен (2004) <br />15、 Рассея 2005年<br /><br />Любэ/Lube/柳拜乐队成员：<br /><br />尼古拉&middot;拉斯托尔古耶夫 - 声乐<br />阿纳托利&middot;库列绍夫 - бэк- 声乐<br />维塔利&middot;洛克捷夫 - 键盘 <br />亚历山大&middot;耶罗欣 - 打击乐<br />帕维尔&middot;乌萨诺夫 - 男低音- 吉他 <br />尼古拉&middot;茨韦特科夫 - 录音师 <br /><br /></p>]]>
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<author>wlglm</author>
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<pubDate>Mon, 01 Oct 2007 22:44:56 GMT+08:00 </pubDate>
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<title>长笛如诉</title>
<link>http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/1004330.html</link>
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<![CDATA[<p>2007年8月31日（周五）晚，步行三站路，于杭州学院路天目琴行，购迪逊长笛一把，以记。</p>]]>
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<author>wlglm</author>
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<pubDate>Sun, 02 Sep 2007 16:32:48 GMT+08:00 </pubDate>
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<title>史上最短但最精彩的武侠小说</title>
<link>http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/901571.html</link>
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<![CDATA[<p>征文要求：<br />1、要同时涉及3大门派<br />2、要包含江湖门派间多年恩怨情仇，又要打破世俗伦理。<br />3、同时情节还要扣人心悬，大有血雨腥风呼之欲来。令人极为期待该小说之续集，同时留下N多悬念。<br />4、越短越好<br /><br />第2天，有人来投稿，全文只有十个字：</p>
<p>秃驴！竟敢跟贫道抢师太！</p>]]>
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<author>wlglm</author>
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<pubDate>Thu, 26 Jul 2007 20:29:05 GMT+08:00 </pubDate>
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<title>我回来了</title>
<link>http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/859904.html</link>
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<![CDATA[<p>很才时间没有上来了，现在冒个泡，和大家打个招呼。</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>]]>
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<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/859904.html</guid>
<subject></subject>
<author>wlglm</author>
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<pubDate>Wed, 11 Jul 2007 14:10:10 GMT+08:00 </pubDate>
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<title>鼓浪屿风光--五一厦门行之一</title>
<link>http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/726071.html</link>
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<![CDATA[<p>一、海滨浴场</p>
<p><img height="375" width="500" alt="" src="/userfilemodule/download.do?action=reference&amp;id=474551&amp;bokeeName=wlglm" /></p>
<p>二、海边别墅</p>
<p><img height="375" width="500" alt="" src="/userfilemodule/download.do?action=reference&amp;id=474644&amp;bokeeName=wlglm" /></p>
<p>三、古街建筑</p>
<p><img alt="" src="/userfilemodule/download.do?action=reference&amp;id=474528&amp;bokeeName=wlglm" /></p>]]>
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<author>wlglm</author>
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<pubDate>Fri, 11 May 2007 23:01:06 GMT+08:00 </pubDate>
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<title>郑成功---五一厦门行之二</title>
<link>http://www.bokee.net/blogmodule/weblogcomment_viewEntry/726053.html</link>
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<![CDATA[<p><img alt="" src="/userfilemodule/download.do?action=reference&amp;id=474559&amp;bokeeName=wlglm" /></p>
<p>别看浩月园的郑成功石像这么高，据说郑成功的实际身高只有1.55M左右，他的父亲是福建人，母亲是日本人。<img height="375" width="500" alt="" src="/userfilemodule/download.do?action=reference&amp;id=474639&amp;bokeeName=wlglm" /></p>
<p>在郑成功记念馆。</p>]]>
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<author>wlglm</author>
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<pubDate>Fri, 11 May 2007 22:50:51 GMT+08:00 </pubDate>
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